NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	112		Excitement	3.8 [1075]		MVP	Jake Layman (POR): +16.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	128		Comeback	1.3 [888]		LVP	Julius Randle (NOP): -6.0%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
E'Twaun Moore	0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.16	0.00	0.06	9	89%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jrue Holiday	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.01	14	67%	0.09	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Davis	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.00	0.05	17	59%	0.06	1	-0.02	12	75%	-0.00
Frank Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Frazier	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Nikola Mirotic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	10	54%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Darius Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jahlil Okafor	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.00	0.07	16	56%	0.01	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jake Layman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.00	-0.02	14	71%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.16	0.01	0.04	12	74%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	12	54%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	-0.04	9	44%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.02	6	75%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	13	48%	0.04	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.00
Anfernee Simons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent Jr.	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	20	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.02
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	9	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	27.3	15.2	33.5	1.7	25.0	129.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +26.0%

POR +1.3%

POR +13.9%

POR +10.0%

NOP -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	POR	NBA	NOP	POR	NBA
this game	12.9	15.6	14.3	109.8	128.0	109.3
season	13.4	14.9		110.2	112.6
opponent	13.9	14.2		109.4	111.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	13.9	13.0	10.9	14.0	12.9
POR	13.2	13.7	16.8	19.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jahlil Okafor	15	13	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.19	8	-24	32	10.8	13.3	-2.49	19.9	15.0	4.95
Tim Frazier	41	38	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.04	-3	-13	10	13.0	12.9	0.13	16.2	15.3	0.91
Elfrid Payton	37	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.03	-5	-11	6	13.1	12.8	0.34	14.6	16.2	-1.67
Nikola Mirotic	48	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-12	8	12.0	13.8	-1.78	17.3	14.1	3.21
Darius Miller	55	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-19	22	12.3	13.7	-1.45	15.7	15.6	0.09
E'Twaun Moore	56	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	-7	-2	13.4	12.3	1.08	16.3	14.8	1.53
Frank Jackson	28	26	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	-6	-4	12.5	13.1	-0.58	13.0	16.5	-3.49
Julius Randle	77	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.07	-16	0	-16	13.6	10.9	2.65	15.5	15.9	-0.34
Jrue Holiday	78	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.10	-19	3	-22	12.9	13.0	-0.16	15.4	16.2	-0.78
Anthony Davis	75	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.26	-25	9	-34	13.5	11.4	2.01	14.7	18.6	-3.95

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al-Farouq Aminu	67	68	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.09	18	-2	20	14.6	17.7	-3.15	13.7	11.4	2.26
Damian Lillard	77	79	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.08	16	0	16	15.3	16.8	-1.57	12.7	13.7	-0.94
CJ McCollum	68	67	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.05	13	3	10	15.0	16.9	-1.94	13.6	11.6	2.01
Evan Turner	52	52	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.00	11	5	6	16.6	14.5	2.07	12.8	13.0	-0.23
Jake Layman	40	42	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.08	8	8	0	15.5	15.7	-0.16	11.8	13.7	-1.93
Jusuf Nurkic	57	60	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.00	10	6	4	14.3	17.3	-3.03	12.6	13.4	-0.82
Zach Collins	39	38	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.11	13	3	10	16.5	15.0	1.46	14.0	12.3	1.68
Seth Curry	25	25	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	15	-14	16.8	15.2	1.52	12.7	13.0	-0.27
Meyers Leonard	28	28	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.13	-3	19	-22	18.4	14.6	3.80	11.3	13.5	-2.21
Anfernee Simons	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	18.0	15.6	2.43	14.0	12.9	1.11
Gary Trent Jr.	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	18.0	15.6	2.43	14.0	12.9	1.11
Maurice Harkless	43	45	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.17	-7	23	-30	16.0	15.3	0.67	12.8	13.0	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 72, DAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.81,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
DEN 91, UTA 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
NYK 83, NJN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%