NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	91		Excitement	3.2 [1182]		MVP	Raja Bell (UTA): +6.9%
Utah Jazz	102		Comeback	1.6 [950]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -16.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryon Russell	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	5	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Greg Buckner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	4	100%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	6	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	9	58%	0.00	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Earl Boykins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.05	8	57%	-0.03	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Francisco Elson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	5	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Rodney White	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.21	-0.00	-0.08	14	42%	-0.08	6	-0.05	12	58%	-0.02
Andre Miller	-0.16	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.01	-0.01	12	37%	-0.08	4	-0.08	6	50%	-0.03

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	14	57%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.00	-0.00	6	75%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jarron Collins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.01	7	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.00	0.06	8	78%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	12	67%	0.05	3	-0.04	12	58%	-0.02
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.13	0.00	-0.11	8	45%	0.01	5	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Keith McLeod	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.01	-0.04	4	30%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	-0.05	5	33%	-0.02	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	1.8	26.3	15.0	25.0	1.8	32.5	132.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +33.9%

UTA +5.9%

UTA +6.7%

UTA +3.6%

DEN -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	14.4	17.0	15.5	100.0	110.9	104.0
season	14.8	16.7		103.8	102.3
opponent	15.1	15.6		106.7	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.1	15.9	13.3	12.4	14.4
UTA	14.5	16.8	18.0	18.9	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	59	62	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.23	3	-14	17	13.9	15.4	-1.46	18.0	15.0	3.07
Bryon Russell	44	44	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.23	3	-14	17	13.0	15.8	-2.77	16.6	17.4	-0.85
Francisco Elson	44	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-9	7	13.2	15.6	-2.46	17.3	16.8	0.46
Earl Boykins	51	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.29	3	-14	17	13.3	15.9	-2.63	16.6	17.5	-0.90
Greg Buckner	42	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	1	-13	15.9	13.1	2.79	17.6	16.5	1.16
Rodney White	45	44	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-3	-5	14.3	14.6	-0.32	16.8	17.2	-0.37
Kenyon Martin	61	59	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	-2	-7	14.8	13.7	1.04	16.1	18.7	-2.60
Andre Miller	57	57	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.03	-14	3	-17	15.1	13.3	1.86	16.9	17.2	-0.32
Marcus Camby	52	55	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.09	-19	8	-27	16.2	12.1	4.12	17.2	16.7	0.51

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrei Kirilenko	77	73	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.00	18	-7	25	17.7	13.7	4.02	14.6	13.6	1.09
Raja Bell	59	60	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.13	12	-1	13	16.6	17.7	-1.08	14.1	15.0	-0.82
Matt Harpring	64	65	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	1	9	17.5	16.1	1.38	14.0	15.5	-1.50
Mehmet Okur	35	35	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.07	11	0	11	17.3	16.9	0.45	16.0	13.4	2.55
Howard Eisley	58	57	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.12	5	6	-1	17.2	16.8	0.42	13.9	15.3	-1.38
Keith McLeod	34	34	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	5	1	16.8	17.2	-0.42	15.3	13.9	1.38
Jarron Collins	36	36	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.00	2	9	-7	15.8	17.8	-2.06	14.4	14.4	0.03
Carlos Boozer	63	62	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.29	-8	19	-27	16.5	18.2	-1.77	13.9	15.6	-1.70
Gordan Giricek	34	33	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	12	-13	17.5	16.8	0.74	14.6	14.3	0.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 72, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
NOP 112, POR 128	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	96.4%
CLE 82, IND 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.65,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%