NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	105		Excitement	6.2 [610]		MVP	Terrence Ross (ORL): +12.5%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	2.6 [340]		LVP	D.J. Augustin (ORL): -19.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.04	0.02	13	66%	0.16	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.07	0.02	16	56%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.01	16	56%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jonathan Isaac	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.02	0.04	5	86%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	10	65%	0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jerian Grant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jonathon Simmons	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Bamba	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	4	40%	0.00	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.04
D.J. Augustin	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.04	-0.07	0.08	11	44%	-0.13	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	13	54%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	7	75%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	8	69%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	44%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.03	11	54%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	7	43%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	13	42%	-0.05	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	14	21%	-0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.7	24.8	15.0	22.1	1.8	32.2	121.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +34.3%

ORL +3.7%

ORL +9.0%

ORL +4.0%

MIA -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.6	14.3	114.1	94.7	109.3
season	14.9	14.8		107.2	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.3		106.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.5	13.6	13.6	17.5	15.2
MIA	14.9	14.1	17.7	16.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Vucevic	65	65	0.85	-0.35	1.19	-0.06	31	-16	47	15.0	15.6	-0.59	15.6	15.8	-0.21
Aaron Gordon	66	69	0.72	-0.22	0.94	-0.13	29	-14	43	14.5	16.8	-2.28	16.4	13.5	2.97
Jonathan Isaac	60	60	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.06	17	-2	19	15.6	14.4	1.18	15.1	16.6	-1.50
D.J. Augustin	54	56	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.12	21	-6	27	14.9	15.6	-0.78	15.6	15.7	-0.08
Terrence Ross	57	59	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	5	5	15.6	14.4	1.25	15.2	16.2	-1.01
Jonathon Simmons	41	44	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	13	-11	14.0	16.1	-2.07	15.3	15.9	-0.52
Jerian Grant	38	39	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.18	-6	21	-27	15.6	14.9	0.78	15.7	15.6	0.08
Evan Fournier	52	53	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.17	-13	28	-41	15.9	14.2	1.68	15.8	15.3	0.52
Mo Bamba	27	30	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	0.12	-16	31	-47	15.6	15.0	0.59	15.8	15.6	0.21

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	25	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.18	4	-19	23	13.8	16.3	-2.53	17.3	14.4	2.87
Rodney McGruder	54	52	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-10	5	15.6	15.6	0.06	14.4	16.1	-1.68
Kelly Olynyk	53	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	-9	3	15.4	15.9	-0.47	15.5	14.7	0.75
Hassan Whiteside	50	48	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.02	-9	-6	-3	16.5	14.7	1.77	14.2	16.2	-2.06
Bam Adebayo	45	44	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-9	3	14.7	16.5	-1.77	16.2	14.2	2.06
James Johnson	42	39	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.00	-9	-6	-3	15.9	15.4	0.47	14.7	15.5	-0.75
Dwyane Wade	43	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-7	-1	15.5	15.7	-0.20	15.7	14.7	1.07
Justise Winslow	63	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	-6	-3	15.0	16.7	-1.70	15.0	15.6	-0.61
Josh Richardson	64	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.07	-13	-2	-11	16.2	14.5	1.64	14.7	16.0	-1.29
Wayne Ellington	36	35	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	-1	-13	17.1	14.7	2.31	15.2	15.1	0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.58,0.41,0.45,0.34,0.2,0.13,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 100, TOR 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.23,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0	93.3%
NOH 111, ATL 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.79,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.19,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.22,0.1,0.04,0.05,0,0	93.3%
ORL 109, ATL 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.31,0.34,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%