NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	112		Excitement	8.3 [269]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +33.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	115		Comeback	4.4 [602]		LVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): -17.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarell Martin	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	6	83%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	-0.01	0.03	12	77%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jonathon Simmons	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.09	0.02	6	81%	0.19	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.06
D.J. Augustin	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	6	71%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mo Bamba	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	62%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Wes Iwundu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Isaac	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.06	-0.02	9	70%	0.19	4	-0.20	5	80%	0.01
Jerian Grant	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	55%	0.01	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	16	31%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.13,-0.17,-0.17	0.04	-0.20	0.02	13	65%	0.16	3	-0.33	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.24,0.34	0.34	0.28	0.06	0.01	22	80%	0.43	3	-0.10	7	71%	0.01
Nik Stauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.02	-0.00	9	86%	0.24	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.03
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	11	53%	0.08	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	5	33%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	43%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	0%	-0.04
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	0.02	0.03	17	39%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.15
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.11	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.14	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.6	24.3	14.5	25.4	1.8	35.5	126.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +6.8%

ORL -13.6%

POR +22.1%

POR +27.8%

POR +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	POR	NBA	ORL	POR	NBA
this game	14.3	14.8	14.3	114.3	115.0	109.3
season	14.9	14.9		107.2	112.6
opponent	13.9	14.3		109.4	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.9	12.6	18.2	11.2	14.3
POR	14.8	15.5	13.1	15.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonathon Simmons	44	46	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.11	1	-4	5	15.7	13.1	2.64	14.8	14.7	0.11
Jonathan Isaac	64	65	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.27	8	-11	19	13.7	15.4	-1.71	15.1	14.2	0.86
Mo Bamba	41	40	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-5	7	13.6	14.8	-1.22	15.0	14.6	0.39
Evan Fournier	73	73	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.33	5	-8	13	14.1	15.0	-0.95	15.3	13.4	1.94
D.J. Augustin	46	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-5	7	14.6	14.0	0.63	14.8	14.8	-0.01
Jerian Grant	52	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	2	-7	14.0	14.6	-0.63	14.8	14.8	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	55	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.17	-7	4	-11	15.2	13.2	2.02	14.9	14.7	0.18
Wes Iwundu	23	23	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.06	-13	10	-23	16.7	13.6	3.14	13.0	15.3	-2.27
Jarell Martin	34	35	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.15	-11	8	-19	15.4	13.7	1.71	14.2	15.1	-0.86
Terrence Ross	58	59	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.60	3	-6	9	12.2	17.3	-5.12	14.5	15.1	-0.60

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	78	76	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.34	15	-12	27	14.3	16.5	-2.19	14.7	12.8	1.91
Evan Turner	56	55	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.42	4	-1	5	14.3	15.5	-1.19	13.4	15.4	-2.04
Jusuf Nurkic	69	68	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	-5	13	14.3	15.8	-1.52	14.7	13.3	1.44
Al-Farouq Aminu	56	55	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	-1	5	14.4	15.3	-0.94	14.8	13.6	1.19
CJ McCollum	72	70	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	3	-3	15.1	13.9	1.20	14.3	14.2	0.06
Seth Curry	29	29	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	1	1	15.0	14.7	0.25	14.2	14.3	-0.13
Zach Collins	44	43	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.20	-1	4	-5	15.3	14.4	0.94	13.6	14.8	-1.19
Maurice Harkless	24	24	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	-2	7	14.7	14.8	-0.16	18.0	13.1	4.91
Meyers Leonard	31	30	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.19	-5	8	-13	15.8	14.3	1.52	13.3	14.7	-1.44
Nik Stauskas	41	40	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	0.10	-17	20	-37	15.8	14.1	1.68	12.5	15.5	-2.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.34,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.63,0.79,0.9,0.85,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.71,0.55,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 90, IND 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.41,0.25,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.35,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.74,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.63,0.68,0.74,1	91.3%
PHX 87, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.27,0.24,0.34,0.33,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.85,0.9,1	90.8%
DET 88, CLE 90	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.3,0.37,0.29,0.38,0.41,0.55,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.78,0.92,1	90.5%