NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	8.4 [210]		MVP	Paul George (IND): +46.7%
Indiana Pacers	93		Comeback	4.2 [238]		LVP	Norris Cole (MIA): -12.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.33	0.14	0.18	-0.01	10	90%	0.37	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.00	4	89%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	11	62%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.01,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	14	60%	0.17	6	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.08,-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	21	48%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	0.02	0.00	10	30%	-0.00	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.02
Norris Cole	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.35,0.44,0.47	0.47	0.15	0.39	0.07	28	63%	0.55	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.09
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.10	0.02	11	63%	0.20	2	-0.06	8	62%	-0.05
Ian Mahinmi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	9	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Lance Stephenson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	11	46%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	11	40%	-0.00	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.7	30.3	17.4	32.1	2.0	40.1	151.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +8.6%

MIA -16.2%

IND +42.5%

IND +15.2%

MIA -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	16.7	17.0	15.1	105.9	108.1	105.2
season	15.6	15.8		109.7	102.7
opponent	15.2	15.8		99.0	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.7	16.8	14.8	17.8	16.7
IND	16.6	18.3	16.5	16.5	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	23	23	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-7	11	14.1	17.7	-3.53	16.4	17.2	-0.74
Chris Bosh	71	72	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.36	10	-13	23	16.6	17.4	-0.87	17.9	12.0	5.94
Toney Douglas	6	6	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	2	-7	21.2	16.4	4.80	15.2	17.1	-1.95
Michael Beasley	6	6	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	1	-5	13.8	16.9	-3.09	18.0	16.9	1.10
Norris Cole	37	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.15	-4	1	-5	14.4	18.5	-4.07	15.7	17.9	-2.16
LeBron James	41	42	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-4	5	17.7	15.8	1.89	18.5	15.5	2.93
Mario Chalmers	61	59	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.10	-7	4	-11	17.6	14.5	3.07	18.1	14.6	3.48
Rashard Lewis	51	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.33	0	-3	3	18.2	14.4	3.77	17.2	16.6	0.66
Dwyane Wade	70	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.46	4	-7	11	17.2	14.2	3.04	17.3	15.4	1.93
Ray Allen	44	46	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-2	1	15.2	18.3	-3.16	14.8	19.5	-4.72
Udonis Haslem	15	14	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.02	-13	10	-23	17.0	16.6	0.36	12.0	17.9	-5.94

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	64	65	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.31	12	-9	21	17.2	16.2	1.07	17.7	13.4	4.32
Paul George	79	79	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.37	9	-6	15	16.9	18.0	-1.11	17.1	11.0	6.14
Roy Hibbert	65	63	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.31	9	-6	15	17.6	15.1	2.43	18.0	12.9	5.18
David West	75	75	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.40	5	-2	7	16.7	19.2	-2.53	16.5	18.6	-2.15
Lance Stephenson	78	76	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	0	3	16.7	19.6	-2.92	16.9	15.2	1.66
CJ Watson	27	26	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	7	-11	16.7	17.1	-0.40	13.7	18.1	-4.40
Ian Mahinmi	1	1	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.04	-2	5	-7	0.0	17.2	-17.18	12.0	16.8	-4.76
Luis Scola	31	31	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	9	-15	17.1	16.9	0.14	14.7	17.8	-3.09
Rasual Butler	10	9	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.07	-11	14	-25	18.8	16.7	2.06	12.9	17.2	-4.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.41,0.25,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.35,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.74,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.63,0.68,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 103, LAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.35,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.8,0.67,0.76,0.63,0.76,0.85,1	91.7%
ORL 112, POR 115	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.34,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.63,0.79,0.9,0.85,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.71,0.55,0.73,1	91.3%
DET 88, CLE 90	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.3,0.37,0.29,0.38,0.41,0.55,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.78,0.92,1	90.6%