NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	7.3 [426]		MVP	Paul Millsap (DEN): +26.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	101		Comeback	2.2 [458]		LVP	Gorgui Dieng (MIN): -19.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27	0.20	0.08	0.01	13	89%	0.30	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Gary Harris	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.02	0.15	-0.01	16	50%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Malik Beasley	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.01	-0.00	5	110%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	6	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01	0.04	-0.04	-0.01	15	56%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Mason Plumlee	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	0.00	0.01	11	36%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01	13	27%	-0.08	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.03	0.01	11	71%	0.16	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Dario Saric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	9	57%	0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Robert Covington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	12	64%	0.11	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	6	29%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	14	59%	0.09	6	-0.17	9	78%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	15	43%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	5	50%	-0.03	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	1.7	30.5	14.4	25.4	2.3	32.7	128.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +53.5%

MIN -18.8%

DEN +1.5%

DEN +15.5%

MIN -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	14.5	15.0	14.3	105.1	104.1	109.3
season	14.8	14.4		112.0	110.2
opponent	14.0	14.6		111.8	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.2	13.9	12.4	15.7	14.5
MIN	13.8	15.5	16.4	14.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	78	77	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.47	8	-6	14	14.7	13.9	0.72	15.3	13.9	1.41
Juancho Hernangomez	66	64	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.40	10	-8	18	14.6	14.3	0.36	14.7	15.7	-0.98
Paul Millsap	56	54	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.43	6	-4	10	15.0	13.8	1.20	14.9	15.2	-0.26
Nikola Jokic	75	74	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.30	4	-2	6	14.7	14.0	0.74	14.8	15.7	-0.83
Gary Harris	75	74	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.42	-1	3	-4	14.8	13.6	1.25	14.2	17.6	-3.34
Mason Plumlee	35	37	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.21	4	-2	6	13.4	15.1	-1.70	15.7	14.6	1.15
Monte Morris	46	47	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	2	-2	13.9	15.1	-1.19	16.0	14.1	1.86
Trey Lyles	29	29	-0.32	0.81	-1.13	-0.02	-10	12	-22	14.7	14.5	0.19	14.8	15.1	-0.28
Malik Beasley	30	29	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	-0.04	-11	13	-24	13.9	14.8	-0.94	15.4	14.8	0.61

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gorgui Dieng	41	40	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.05	8	-10	18	14.6	15.3	-0.67	14.0	14.9	-0.88
Tyus Jones	39	38	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-4	6	15.9	14.4	1.42	14.5	14.5	-0.03
Anthony Tolliver	0	1	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-4	6	0.0	15.0	-15.02	0.0	14.7	-14.67
Taj Gibson	40	41	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.10	2	-4	6	13.4	16.2	-2.80	15.2	14.0	1.20
Robert Covington	74	76	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.41	8	-10	18	14.8	15.8	-1.06	15.3	11.7	3.60
Andrew Wiggins	63	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	4	-10	14.2	16.5	-2.28	14.1	15.3	-1.18
Derrick Rose	58	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	2	-6	16.3	13.2	3.08	14.2	14.9	-0.66
Dario Saric	56	54	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.20	-8	6	-14	16.1	13.5	2.66	13.9	15.3	-1.41
Jeff Teague	58	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.40	-4	2	-6	14.4	15.9	-1.42	14.5	14.5	0.03
Karl-Anthony Towns	56	58	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.39	-10	8	-18	15.3	14.6	0.67	14.9	14.0	0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.47,0.5,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.24,0.11,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 105, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.12,0.19,0.08,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.15,0.31,0.04,0	91.0%
DEN 94, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.31,0.21,0.14,0.09,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.37,0.24,0.1,0	91.0%
PHX 111, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.22,0.26,0	90.9%