NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	116		Excitement	7.1 [457]		MVP	Jeff Green (WAS): +23.5%
Miami Heat	110		Comeback	3.0 [299]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -13.2%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23	0.11	0.11	-0.01	12	76%	0.28	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Austin Rivers	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.01	12	62%	0.18	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
John Wall	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	20	57%	0.10	2	-0.03	9	78%	0.02
Bradley Beal	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	10	69%	0.11	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Otto Porter Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.03	0.00	8	41%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.06	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Tomas Satoransky	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	6	42%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	46%	-0.03	2	-0.02	10	70%	-0.02
Markieff Morris	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.01	-0.02	14	67%	0.23	2	-0.09	5	60%	-0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	4	73%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	3	62%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.03	10	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.13	-0.03	0.10	14	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.03
Derrick Jones Jr.	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	12	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.06	-0.02	12	50%	0.04	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	12	57%	0.09	5	-0.19	4	100%	0.02
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.17	-0.03	-0.07	7	0%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.5	32.4	15.3	28.5	2.4	36.5	143.9
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -3.6%

WAS +21.7%

WAS +11.0%

WAS +18.3%

WAS +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.1	14.2	14.3	114.9	107.8	109.3
season	13.8	14.8		109.8	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.3		106.7	112.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.7	12.3	15.3	14.3	14.1
MIA	14.1	15.9	14.1	12.9	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	75	71	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.31	14	-8	22	14.1	14.2	-0.03	13.1	16.8	-3.63
John Wall	83	86	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.38	3	3	0	14.4	12.7	1.78	14.6	12.2	2.44
Austin Rivers	64	63	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	2	2	14.3	13.9	0.37	11.8	18.2	-6.41
Bradley Beal	55	57	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.11	9	-3	12	13.5	14.9	-1.48	16.7	11.1	5.57
Kelly Oubre Jr.	42	42	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.16	6	0	6	14.0	14.2	-0.18	12.2	15.7	-3.49
Ian Mahinmi	31	31	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.04	8	-2	10	14.3	14.1	0.23	12.5	15.0	-2.44
Dwight Howard	66	68	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.22	-2	8	-10	14.2	13.9	0.33	15.3	12.1	3.19
Tomas Satoransky	16	15	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.05	0	6	-6	12.6	14.4	-1.79	10.7	14.9	-4.12
Otto Porter Jr.	44	45	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.03	-2	8	-10	14.6	13.8	0.82	16.7	12.3	4.41
Markieff Morris	29	32	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.04	-10	16	-26	14.1	14.2	-0.08	16.4	13.3	3.10

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	30	31	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.18	6	-12	18	12.1	15.1	-2.99	14.7	13.9	0.84
Goran Dragic	41	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	-2	-2	17.6	12.0	5.67	13.9	14.3	-0.38
Derrick Jones Jr.	2	2	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-3	0	3.0	14.5	-11.47	14.5	14.1	0.38
Josh Richardson	79	78	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.37	6	-12	18	13.8	15.9	-2.10	14.2	13.9	0.34
Justise Winslow	64	63	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	4	-14	15.6	11.9	3.70	14.4	13.7	0.67
Kelly Olynyk	29	28	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	-2	-2	12.4	15.0	-2.56	13.0	14.5	-1.51
Tyler Johnson	73	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-8	10	13.0	17.4	-4.48	14.4	13.3	1.09
Rodney McGruder	55	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.13	-7	1	-8	14.6	13.8	0.77	14.4	13.9	0.52
Hassan Whiteside	71	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	4	-14	15.3	11.7	3.60	14.0	14.4	-0.36
Wayne Ellington	66	66	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.49	-6	0	-6	13.4	15.8	-2.37	13.7	14.9	-1.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.43,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.05,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 103, DEN 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.27,0.24,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0	93.2%
UTA 114, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.43,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.0%
UTA 97, PHX 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.04,0	92.6%