NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	103		Excitement	6.3 [526]		MVP	Todd Fuller (GSW): +18.8%
Denver Nuggets	93		Comeback	3.9 [214]		LVP	Tom Hammonds (DEN): -12.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Todd Fuller	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.06	0.12	0.00	10	64%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Scott Burrell	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.02	7	61%	0.11	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Felton Spencer	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Booker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	14	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Mullin	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	16	54%	0.02	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Andrew DeClercq	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.02
Ray Owes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Donyell Marshall	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	14	43%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	14	37%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	-0.02	-0.00	12	86%	0.20	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	11	45%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Zidek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	12	37%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	20	49%	0.01	2	-0.07	9	67%	-0.02
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.04	-0.03	6	17%	-0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.05	0.02	16	53%	-0.02	4	-0.10	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	23.6	16.3	25.3	1.6	25.3	116.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -11.2%

GSW +25.1%

GSW +27.2%

GSW +3.7%

GSW +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	15.6	14.1	15.6	106.2	95.9	104.4
season	15.0	15.2		104.4	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.4		108.8	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	14.8	15.7	18.2	15.6
DEN	11.8	15.2	13.8	16.0	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Burrell	55	55	0.73	-0.24	0.97	0.20	18	-8	26	15.7	15.6	0.12	15.1	12.7	2.32
Ray Owes	20	20	0.53	-0.04	0.57	0.09	15	-5	20	15.3	15.7	-0.43	17.5	13.2	4.34
Todd Fuller	55	54	0.34	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	5	0	15.9	15.3	0.54	14.8	13.1	1.72
Chris Mullin	70	71	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	3	4	15.5	16.1	-0.65	13.7	14.9	-1.19
Joe Smith	55	56	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	2	6	15.9	15.3	0.67	13.2	15.2	-1.98
Felton Spencer	36	37	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	8	-6	15.8	15.6	0.22	12.7	14.9	-2.14
Andrew DeClercq	38	36	-0.10	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	15	-20	15.4	15.8	-0.40	14.7	13.7	1.07
Donyell Marshall	59	59	-0.18	0.67	-0.85	0.12	-10	20	-30	15.5	15.8	-0.33	12.8	15.9	-3.07

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	77	79	-0.01	-0.48	0.48	-0.16	5	-15	20	13.6	15.6	-2.01	15.9	14.5	1.40
Anthony Goldwire	69	70	-0.04	-0.45	0.40	-0.16	4	-14	18	13.2	16.2	-3.04	15.4	16.2	-0.81
George Zidek	4	3	-0.18	-0.31	0.13	-0.06	-4	-6	2	12.0	14.1	-2.14	9.7	15.8	-6.16
Jerome Allen	8	8	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	1	-12	15.2	13.9	1.31	11.7	16.0	-4.24
Brooks Thompson	34	32	-0.26	-0.23	-0.03	0.00	-9	-1	-8	14.9	13.6	1.32	14.8	16.1	-1.28
Tom Hammonds	80	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-6	2	13.7	15.7	-2.01	16.4	12.1	4.27
Dale Ellis	94	94	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.21	-8	-2	-6	14.1	12.3	1.77	15.8	10.3	5.48
Kenny Smith	28	27	-0.45	-0.04	-0.40	-0.04	-14	4	-18	16.2	13.2	3.04	16.2	15.4	0.81
Ervin Johnson	91	92	-0.48	-0.01	-0.48	-0.22	-9	-1	-8	14.3	10.0	4.32	15.4	19.6	-4.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.27,0.24,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 116, MIA 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.43,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%
SEA 103, DAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.05,0	92.4%
WAS 110, CLE 103	0.5,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.64,0.54,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.31,0.12,0.13,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.09,0	91.9%