NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	103		Excitement	7.3 [335]		MVP	Dale Ellis (SEA): +18.9%
Dallas Mavericks	101		Comeback	3.6 [641]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -26.8%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.27,0.19	0.07	0.13	0.01	12	64%	0.21	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	21	61%	0.21	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Detlef Schrempf	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	14	69%	0.16	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Sam Perkins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jim McIlvaine	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Hersey Hawkins	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	8	29%	-0.04	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Vin Baker	-0.11	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	-0.01	17	41%	-0.03	3	-0.08	5	0%	-0.08

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.07	0.02	11	58%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Chris Anstey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	57%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Martin Muursepp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.00	8	70%	0.08	2	-0.08	7	100%	0.04
Khalid Reeves	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	0.04	6	57%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	12	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
A.C. Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.04	-0.02	5	31%	-0.09	3	-0.07	6	83%	-0.03
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.27	-0.27	-0.06	-0.19	0.02	22	55%	-0.09	6	-0.17	5	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.8	28.1	15.8	28.1	1.6	27.0	125.2
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +74.8%

DAL -23.8%

SEA +6.5%

DAL -5.7%

DAL -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DAL	NBA	SEA	DAL	NBA
this game	14.2	15.3	15.6	106.2	103.1	102.5
season	15.3	15.8		109.3	98.3
opponent	15.5	16.2		104.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.0	10.2	16.0	16.5	14.2
DAL	13.8	14.9	16.7	16.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Detlef Schrempf	85	83	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.46	8	-6	14	14.3	13.4	0.90	15.5	14.6	0.86
Vin Baker	69	73	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	-3	8	14.6	13.1	1.49	16.2	12.9	3.23
Gary Payton	89	90	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.46	2	0	2	14.6	10.4	4.18	15.3	15.7	-0.46
Jerome Kersey	40	40	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	0	2	13.3	14.8	-1.54	15.5	15.2	0.25
Hersey Hawkins	65	65	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.35	-1	3	-4	14.4	13.8	0.63	14.8	16.4	-1.66
Dale Ellis	50	50	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.19	2	0	2	13.9	14.5	-0.63	15.3	15.4	-0.14
Sam Perkins	47	48	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	2	-2	13.4	14.9	-1.51	14.2	16.4	-2.23
Greg Anthony	18	19	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	5	-8	11.4	14.8	-3.39	13.9	15.7	-1.71
Jim McIlvaine	22	22	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	7	-12	16.7	13.5	3.20	17.5	14.7	2.74

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Anstey	26	28	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.13	6	-8	14	17.2	14.7	2.49	17.1	13.0	4.03
A.C. Green	85	83	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.33	7	-9	16	14.8	18.6	-3.79	14.2	14.0	0.24
Khalid Reeves	49	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	2	-6	15.4	15.3	0.08	14.9	13.5	1.45
Martin Muursepp	60	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.13	-3	1	-4	15.5	15.1	0.45	13.0	16.1	-3.03
Hubert Davis	54	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.33	-3	1	-4	15.1	15.6	-0.44	13.2	15.5	-2.30
Michael Finley	98	97	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	15.3	0.0	15.33	14.2	0.0	14.21
Erick Strickland	44	43	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.42	-4	2	-6	15.8	14.9	0.85	14.6	13.9	0.67
Shawn Bradley	74	72	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.40	-7	5	-12	15.0	16.5	-1.50	14.1	14.6	-0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 102, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.28,0.32,0.41,0.24,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.06,0.04,0	92.6%
GSW 103, DEN 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.27,0.24,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0	92.4%
MIL 101, SAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.43,0.41,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.06,0,0	92.3%