NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	110		Excitement	9.6 [122]		MVP	Bojan Bogdanovic (IND): +37.6%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	8.3 [174]		LVP	Justise Winslow (MIA): -23.8%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bojan Bogdanovic	0.38	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.38	0.09	0.30	0.01	9	80%	0.42	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Domantas Sabonis	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.09	0.00	7	77%	0.27	2	-0.09	8	62%	-0.03
Cory Joseph	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.03	0.01	7	100%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.1	0.05	0.04	-0.00	10	61%	0.16	1	-0.06	8	62%	-0.03
Doug McDermott	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
TJ Leaf	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	2	37%	-0.02	3	-0.04	4	25%	-0.05
Victor Oladipo	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.04	22	45%	-0.03	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Myles Turner	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	44%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	10	36%	-0.04	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.27,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.14	0.09	0.00	8	87%	0.28	1	-0.04	7	71%	0.04
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.00	6	71%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	11	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	17	46%	0.14	6	-0.25	5	80%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	8	52%	0.01	4	-0.13	5	20%	-0.12
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	12	54%	0.05	5	-0.19	4	50%	-0.04
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0,-0.24	-0.24	-0.08	-0.17	-0.01	13	38%	-0.18	3	-0.06	3	67%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.5	33.5	14.4	31.6	3.4	41.5	155.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +55.2%

MIA -3.6%

MIA -25.0%

IND +27.9%

MIA -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	13.0	14.9	14.3	106.8	99.0	109.3
season	14.5	14.8		108.4	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.6		106.7	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.8	13.5	11.1	13.7	13.0
MIA	15.0	13.6	16.6	14.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Myles Turner	50	49	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.31	20	-12	32	12.5	13.5	-1.03	16.6	13.5	3.09
Cory Joseph	71	70	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.42	16	-8	24	12.0	15.2	-3.18	15.0	14.8	0.26
Bojan Bogdanovic	63	63	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.35	13	-5	18	12.3	14.2	-1.87	16.0	13.2	2.79
Victor Oladipo	79	77	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.18	15	-7	22	12.6	14.3	-1.65	15.6	12.9	2.69
Darren Collison	79	77	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.19	11	-3	14	12.8	13.7	-0.83	15.3	13.8	1.45
Thaddeus Young	35	35	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.06	-1	9	-10	13.6	12.7	0.91	15.6	14.6	0.97
TJ Leaf	16	17	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.06	-7	15	-22	13.7	12.9	0.78	11.7	15.6	-3.86
Tyreke Evans	37	40	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.00	-8	16	-24	14.8	12.1	2.70	13.6	15.8	-2.22
Doug McDermott	32	33	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.09	-7	15	-22	15.1	12.1	3.00	12.9	15.9	-3.02
Domantas Sabonis	53	54	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	-0.04	-12	20	-32	13.5	12.5	1.03	13.5	16.6	-3.09

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Jones Jr.	57	55	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.24	-2	-6	4	14.2	15.8	-1.62	12.9	13.1	-0.22
Duncan Robinson	11	12	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.03	4	-12	16	13.8	15.1	-1.25	15.6	12.7	2.89
Bam Adebayo	17	17	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.02	2	-10	12	12.2	15.5	-3.30	13.2	13.0	0.18
Tyler Johnson	74	73	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.04	-1	-7	6	14.7	15.5	-0.81	12.3	14.7	-2.36
Kelly Olynyk	50	47	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-10	12	14.1	15.7	-1.62	12.4	13.6	-1.23
Hassan Whiteside	68	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.27	1	-9	10	15.6	13.6	2.02	13.7	11.7	1.98
Josh Richardson	61	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-6	4	14.4	15.7	-1.28	14.2	11.3	2.90
Wayne Ellington	47	50	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.39	-6	-2	-4	15.5	14.5	1.03	13.2	12.8	0.37
Justise Winslow	59	59	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.32	-18	10	-28	16.0	13.5	2.50	12.3	14.0	-1.66
Rodney McGruder	71	72	-0.90	0.40	-1.31	-0.32	-20	12	-32	15.7	13.2	2.49	12.6	14.0	-1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.69,0.66,0.81,0.85,0.71,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 88, NYK 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.84,0	92.0%
LAL 111, UTA 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.67,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.55,0.84,0	91.9%
UTA 99, LAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.75,0.79,0.68,0.59,0	91.2%