NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	8.0 [313]		MVP	Monte Morris (DEN): +28.9%
Los Angeles Lakers	121		Comeback	7.8 [143]		LVP	Paul Millsap (DEN): -21.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monte Morris	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.17	0.12	0.00	9	83%	0.29	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Mason Plumlee	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	0.00	6	77%	0.16	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Malik Beasley	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	2	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0.07	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	17	54%	0.15	3	-0.08	7	71%	0.01
Gary Harris	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	13	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	12	44%	0.05	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.03
Torrey Craig	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.01,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14	0.01	-0.14	0.00	17	62%	0.12	6	-0.26	5	100%	0.04
Paul Millsap	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.11	0.01	9	33%	-0.07	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21	0.21	0.11	0.11	0.01	17	64%	0.25	2	-0.04	10	70%	0.02
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.09	0.01	16	64%	0.20	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Lonzo Ball	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.00	0.13	-0.01	10	60%	0.23	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.02	18	55%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.00	11	55%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Svi Mykhailiuk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Hart	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	10	46%	0.06	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.05
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Johnathan Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.5	27.3	16.6	29.2	2.6	35.5	139.9
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +20.5%

LAL +0.7%

DEN -3.6%

LAL +33.4%

DEN -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	13.9	13.3	14.3	107.5	114.2	109.3
season	14.8	13.5		112.0	107.2
opponent	14.2	14.6		108.7	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	12.7	13.9	14.2	13.9
LAL	11.9	13.0	12.7	15.8	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	21	20	0.33	-0.83	1.15	0.15	6	-13	19	14.1	13.8	0.27	17.6	12.3	5.37
Mason Plumlee	31	29	0.30	-0.80	1.09	0.27	1	-8	9	14.3	13.7	0.58	14.6	12.8	1.83
Trey Lyles	46	46	0.19	-0.69	0.87	0.19	0	-7	7	13.7	14.0	-0.36	13.5	13.1	0.41
Monte Morris	60	59	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-10	13	13.6	14.3	-0.72	14.2	12.1	2.09
Juancho Hernangomez	19	19	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	-2	-3	16.2	13.4	2.78	11.3	13.7	-2.41
Torrey Craig	59	59	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-2	-3	13.4	14.5	-1.10	13.3	13.3	-0.09
Jamal Murray	75	74	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.30	-12	5	-17	14.5	12.5	2.02	12.7	14.7	-2.04
Gary Harris	81	83	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.41	-9	2	-11	13.5	15.0	-1.42	13.1	14.0	-0.85
Paul Millsap	64	65	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.47	-9	2	-11	13.7	14.2	-0.56	12.6	14.5	-1.91
Nikola Jokic	74	76	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.64	-5	-2	-3	13.8	14.1	-0.31	12.7	14.7	-1.96

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Hart	74	72	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.47	15	-8	23	12.9	14.2	-1.37	13.1	15.4	-2.30
Lonzo Ball	76	74	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.42	10	-3	13	13.0	14.0	-0.94	13.7	14.2	-0.49
LeBron James	75	78	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.25	13	-6	19	13.1	13.6	-0.50	14.1	13.3	0.76
Kyle Kuzma	76	76	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.39	7	0	7	13.2	13.6	-0.38	13.8	14.2	-0.40
Lance Stephenson	53	52	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.23	6	1	5	13.8	12.8	1.08	14.4	13.4	1.00
JaVale McGee	70	70	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	3	1	13.6	12.6	0.99	13.8	13.9	-0.10
Michael Beasley	6	6	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	8	-9	7.3	13.6	-6.32	16.2	13.7	2.43
Svi Mykhailiuk	26	27	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.08	-2	9	-11	13.9	13.1	0.84	14.5	13.7	0.81
Johnathan Williams	26	26	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.07	-4	11	-15	13.3	13.3	0.02	14.7	13.6	1.08
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	48	49	-0.53	1.03	-1.55	-0.14	-13	20	-33	14.1	12.7	1.41	13.5	14.2	-0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.63,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.59,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.33,0.31,0.85,0.85,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 102, GSW 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.63,0.94,0.99,1	92.1%
MEM 96, CHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.52,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.38,0.63,0.66,0.83,1	90.8%
LAL 108, MEM 114	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.54,0.77,0.95,1	90.8%