NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	102		Excitement	8.1 [231]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +29.8%
Golden State Warriors	109		Comeback	7.8 [200]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -34.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolas Batum	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.02	14	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.06,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.02	19	57%	0.21	5	-0.15	6	100%	0.06
Patty Mills	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	7	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	4	78%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	53%	0.08	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Sean Marks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Fernandez	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	8	44%	0.00	1	-0.10	2	50%	-0.03
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.17,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	21	34%	-0.08	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Miller	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.14	-0.11	-0.00	15	33%	-0.17	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.19	0.09	-0.02	26	62%	0.30	1	-0.00	11	91%	0.06
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.13	0.17	0.02	9	89%	0.31	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.10	-0.00	9	50%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.01	11	75%	0.30	5	-0.18	6	83%	0.02
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	125%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.08	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Acie Law	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.21	-0.14	0.00	15	13%	-0.25	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.8	34.3	19.4	27.7	2.7	37.7	148.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +71.9%

GSW +5.1%

POR -36.4%

GSW +9.3%

GSW +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	GSW	NBA	POR	GSW	NBA
this game	16.3	13.9	15.5	107.4	113.5	105.7
season	16.5	14.8		106.7	106.6
opponent	15.2	15.7		109.0	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.0	15.9	18.0	15.4	16.3
GSW	15.3	14.1	13.3	12.9	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	25	27	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.01	7	-14	21	18.3	15.6	2.73	14.5	13.6	0.86
Dante Cunningham	48	49	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.04	4	-11	15	17.0	15.6	1.49	14.8	12.9	1.90
Sean Marks	7	7	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-7	7	17.3	16.2	1.06	15.0	13.8	1.22
Marcus Camby	48	46	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	-1	-5	15.4	17.2	-1.75	14.4	13.4	1.05
Rudy Fernandez	52	55	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	-3	-1	16.1	16.6	-0.46	13.5	14.4	-0.87
Wesley Matthews	76	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.33	-4	-3	-1	16.3	16.3	0.05	13.6	14.8	-1.18
LaMarcus Aldridge	78	79	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.32	-7	0	-7	16.7	14.5	2.23	13.8	14.2	-0.45
Nicolas Batum	72	72	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.32	-11	4	-15	15.8	18.0	-2.18	13.4	15.2	-1.85
Andre Miller	69	69	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.29	-14	7	-21	15.8	17.6	-1.80	13.6	14.5	-0.86

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Radmanovic	35	35	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.54	11	-4	15	13.6	14.0	-0.42	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Dorell Wright	64	62	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.40	10	-3	13	13.8	14.0	-0.25	15.4	18.1	-2.74
Reggie Williams	36	37	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.39	7	0	7	14.3	13.6	0.75	15.8	16.7	-0.90
Monta Ellis	90	91	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.30	9	-2	11	14.1	10.7	3.41	16.2	18.5	-2.29
David Lee	89	89	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-3	13	14.0	11.9	2.17	16.2	18.3	-2.16
Stephen Curry	58	58	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.19	7	0	7	13.6	14.3	-0.66	16.9	15.4	1.47
Lou Amundson	35	34	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.02	-1	8	-9	14.1	13.8	0.30	16.2	16.3	-0.11
Rodney Carney	31	30	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	10	-13	13.6	14.0	-0.37	16.6	16.2	0.48
Acie Law	11	8	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.01	-9	16	-25	11.4	14.2	-2.82	21.6	15.8	5.81
Ekpe Udoh	31	31	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.16	-6	13	-19	14.1	13.7	0.39	17.4	15.8	1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.63,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 89, DET 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.38,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.85,0.99,1	92.9%
PHX 112, ATL 120	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.45,0.55,0.9,0.95,1	92.5%
DEN 114, LAL 121	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.63,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.59,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.33,0.31,0.85,0.85,0.98,1	92.1%