NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	136		Excitement	9.7 [118]		MVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): +39.4%
Dallas Mavericks	140		Comeback	3.0 [258]		LVP	C.J. Williams (MIN): -11.4%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0.39	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.39	0.22	0.19	0.02	16	74%	0.39	0	0.00	10	90%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24	0.05	0.18	-0.01	21	58%	0.33	3	-0.09	6	67%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.20	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.2	0.05	0.15	-0.01	6	69%	0.21	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.08	-0.00	4	83%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Anthony Tolliver	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	4	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.03	-0.00	9	70%	0.11	3	-0.07	9	78%	-0.02
Tyus Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Okogie	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Teague	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05	0.04	-0.08	0.01	14	61%	0.05	4	-0.11	8	100%	0.05
C.J. Williams	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.32	0.32	0.07	0.26	0.01	14	58%	0.35	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.04
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.17	0.10	-0.00	10	81%	0.27	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.04
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.12	0.02	7	86%	0.29	3	-0.08	8	75%	-0.01
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	-0.03	0.20	-0.01	19	46%	0.21	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.04
Luka Doncic	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.15,0.1,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.06	-0.03	16	63%	0.30	6	-0.18	9	67%	-0.06
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	7	50%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
J.J. Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	10	55%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	7	57%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Broekhoff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	1.7	32.4	15.3	31.1	1.6	39.1	151.4
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +22.4%

DAL +2.7%

DAL +16.5%

DAL +7.1%

DAL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DAL	NBA	MIN	DAL	NBA
this game	12.6	13.6	14.3	122.5	128.4	109.3
season	14.4	14.7		110.2	108.5
opponent	14.1	14.0		109.7	111.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	11.8	14.0	10.7	14.2	12.6
DAL	12.2	13.2	15.6	13.5	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyus Jones	33	34	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.16	3	-7	10	11.9	12.9	-0.96	12.7	14.0	-1.27
Gorgui Dieng	36	36	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.11	1	-5	6	12.7	12.6	0.08	12.0	14.3	-2.31
Josh Okogie	66	65	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.10	3	-7	10	12.4	12.9	-0.46	13.7	13.4	0.32
Andrew Wiggins	66	64	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.25	8	-12	20	12.7	12.6	0.10	13.1	14.2	-1.10
Anthony Tolliver	41	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-1	-2	12.4	12.7	-0.31	12.1	14.5	-2.33
C.J. Williams	17	16	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.13	-9	5	-14	13.3	12.5	0.80	14.2	13.5	0.79
Taj Gibson	70	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.37	-1	-3	2	12.7	12.4	0.31	14.5	12.1	2.33
Derrick Rose	73	73	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.28	-10	6	-16	12.6	12.7	-0.07	13.7	13.3	0.41
Karl-Anthony Towns	75	73	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.49	-5	1	-6	12.6	12.7	-0.08	14.3	12.0	2.31
Jeff Teague	78	75	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.55	-7	3	-10	12.9	11.9	0.96	14.0	12.7	1.27

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorian Finney-Smith	65	70	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.39	10	-6	16	13.6	13.5	0.17	12.9	12.1	0.74
Wesley Matthews	77	80	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.49	4	0	4	14.2	12.1	2.10	13.1	11.2	1.92
Dennis Smith Jr.	57	60	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.56	0	4	-4	13.7	13.5	0.22	13.7	11.4	2.33
Luka Doncic	82	86	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.24	6	-2	8	13.6	13.6	-0.02	12.3	13.8	-1.48
DeAndre Jordan	69	72	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	2	0	14.2	12.4	1.82	13.0	11.8	1.22
Maxi Kleber	43	41	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	6	-8	12.7	14.2	-1.45	12.0	13.0	-1.01
Jalen Brunson	48	46	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	2	0	13.0	14.0	-1.07	12.5	12.7	-0.23
J.J. Barea	52	51	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.18	4	0	4	13.5	13.7	-0.22	11.4	13.7	-2.33
Ryan Broekhoff	11	10	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	8	-12	11.9	13.8	-1.86	11.8	12.7	-0.89
Dwight Powell	41	39	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	6	-8	13.3	13.8	-0.50	12.0	12.9	-0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.39,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.75,0.72,0.8,0.79,0.9,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 67, HOU 73	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.71,0.61,0.61,0.78,0.95,0.99,1	92.8%
IND 73, DEN 76	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.64,0.81,0.66,0.62,0.84,0.83,0.96,1	92.3%
OKC 94, DEN 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.36,0.5,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.99,1	92.0%