NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	67		Excitement	6.6 [526]		MVP	Jon Barry (HOU): +10.6%
Houston Rockets	73		Comeback	3.0 [742]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -23.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	4	73%	0.11	1	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	7	29%	0.00	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	2	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	5	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.03
Malik Rose	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	18	51%	0.03	4	-0.15	5	60%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.12,-0.2,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24	-0.08	-0.13	0.03	19	41%	-0.15	1	-0.09	6	67%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.01	4	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.08	-0.01	8	59%	0.11	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	8	41%	0.00	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.02
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	7	40%	-0.01	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Andre Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.07	-0.10	0.01	8	35%	-0.15	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.04	0.00	28	43%	-0.09	4	-0.11	9	78%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.7	29.1	16.5	26.3	2.7	43.4	143.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -3.0%

HOU +29.5%

HOU +21.4%

HOU +4.5%

SAS -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	17.0	16.1	15.5	77.0	83.9	104.0
season	16.3	16.0		105.8	104.2
opponent	15.8	15.6		100.6	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.2	17.2	18.2	15.4	17.0
HOU	17.9	16.3	16.0	14.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	27	28	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.14	8	-14	22	15.8	17.5	-1.72	17.8	15.3	2.48
Robert Horry	29	30	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.10	-2	-4	2	14.7	18.1	-3.41	15.7	16.4	-0.62
Tony Massenburg	13	13	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.10	-5	-1	-4	17.2	16.9	0.22	15.0	16.3	-1.34
Rasho Nesterovic	49	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.33	7	-13	20	17.3	16.5	0.78	17.0	15.0	1.98
Tony Parker	61	63	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.26	4	-10	14	16.8	17.3	-0.43	16.1	16.2	-0.04
Beno Udrih	37	35	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	-2	-2	16.9	17.0	-0.13	16.4	16.0	0.39
Malik Rose	15	13	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-2	-2	18.7	16.6	2.14	14.9	16.4	-1.43
Brent Barry	40	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-3	0	16.6	17.2	-0.58	15.8	16.4	-0.67
Devin Brown	23	22	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.05	-13	7	-20	18.9	16.3	2.65	14.8	16.6	-1.77
Bruce Bowen	73	74	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.34	-10	4	-14	17.1	16.2	0.90	16.0	17.0	-1.01
Tim Duncan	68	68	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.41	-8	2	-10	17.3	15.9	1.37	16.1	16.1	0.04

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Taylor	46	45	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.23	18	-12	30	15.4	17.0	-1.58	16.3	17.7	-1.45
Tracy McGrady	82	82	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.34	10	-4	14	16.0	18.6	-2.61	16.9	18.4	-1.52
Jon Barry	51	50	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.21	14	-8	22	15.7	16.7	-1.04	16.5	17.6	-1.14
Yao Ming	51	50	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.30	2	4	-2	16.0	16.4	-0.38	17.2	16.7	0.50
Bob Sura	51	52	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.35	-4	10	-14	16.5	15.6	0.95	16.8	17.3	-0.49
Andre Barrett	22	21	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.04	7	-1	8	15.6	16.3	-0.73	17.0	17.0	0.05
Dikembe Mutombo	35	35	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.07	8	-2	10	16.8	15.7	1.16	17.5	16.6	0.82
Ryan Bowen	1	2	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	10	-14	0.0	16.3	-16.33	3.0	17.3	-14.29
David Wesley	55	56	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.09	-9	15	-24	16.6	15.3	1.31	17.7	15.6	2.05
Juwan Howard	41	42	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	0.10	-12	18	-30	17.0	15.4	1.58	17.7	16.3	1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.71,0.61,0.61,0.78,0.95,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 136, DAL 140	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.39,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.75,0.72,0.8,0.79,0.9,0.85,1	92.8%
IND 73, DEN 76	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.64,0.81,0.66,0.62,0.84,0.83,0.96,1	92.2%
POR 89, SAC 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.59,0.67,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.98,1	92.0%