NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	126		Excitement	7.8 [328]		MVP	Nikola Mirotic (NOP): +28.1%
Golden State Warriors	120		Comeback	2.9 [222]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -27.0%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Mirotic	0.28	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.28	0.21	0.08	0.02	18	74%	0.28	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
E'Twaun Moore	0.27	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27	0.16	0.13	0.01	7	107%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.22	0.11	0.12	0.01	18	62%	0.26	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Davis	0.20	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.10	0.12	0.02	24	59%	0.25	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.05
Darius Miller	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.07	0.00	6	62%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Cheick Diallo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Rajon Rondo	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	11	52%	0.01	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Solomon Hill	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.12	0.00	14	62%	0.23	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.13	0.13	0.19	-0.04	0.02	26	69%	0.43	4	-0.29	7	71%	-0.00
Quinn Cook	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	14	75%	0.22	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	100%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	5	55%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	7	71%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Damian Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.3,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.14	-0.15	-0.02	12	46%	0.01	7	-0.28	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.0	26.0	14.7	25.1	1.7	35.3	127.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -4.2%

NOP +13.2%

GSW -14.4%

NOP +53.2%

NOP +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	GSW	NBA	NOP	GSW	NBA
this game	13.5	14.6	14.7	122.3	117.6	107.5
season	13.6	13.7		108.0	112.6
opponent	15.1	14.6		105.8	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	12.0	15.1	12.8	14.3	13.5
GSW	14.2	13.2	17.2	14.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	70	69	0.96	-0.46	1.43	0.35	21	-15	36	13.2	14.3	-1.13	14.3	15.2	-0.95
Nikola Mirotic	88	87	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.44	7	-1	8	13.6	13.3	0.31	14.4	15.4	-0.97
Jrue Holiday	84	86	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	3	0	13.7	12.7	1.04	15.2	11.3	3.86
Anthony Davis	87	85	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	4	-2	13.3	14.9	-1.66	14.3	15.9	-1.65
Cheick Diallo	21	22	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	-1	8	14.1	13.4	0.70	16.8	14.0	2.81
Darius Miller	55	52	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.10	5	1	4	13.4	13.7	-0.37	14.8	14.3	0.45
E'Twaun Moore	77	76	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.30	-5	11	-16	13.9	12.4	1.54	14.4	15.0	-0.58
Solomon Hill	33	33	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.13	-10	16	-26	13.4	13.6	-0.21	13.2	15.2	-1.96

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Jones	10	11	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.03	5	-11	16	12.8	14.8	-1.96	10.6	13.9	-3.24
Andre Iguodala	45	48	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-11	16	13.6	15.4	-1.81	14.1	13.0	1.07
Klay Thompson	80	77	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.15	4	-10	14	15.0	13.1	1.83	13.8	12.7	1.18
Jordan Bell	11	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.11	-7	1	-8	13.1	14.7	-1.66	12.4	13.7	-1.31
Quinn Cook	82	82	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-4	2	14.7	14.1	0.58	12.6	17.1	-4.53
Kevin Durant	76	78	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-7	8	13.8	16.9	-3.16	13.6	13.2	0.39
Draymond Green	79	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-2	-2	14.4	15.1	-0.67	14.3	11.2	3.08
David West	28	28	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.15	-9	3	-12	16.7	13.8	2.91	13.3	13.6	-0.29
Kevon Looney	55	57	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.48	-2	-4	2	14.5	14.6	-0.05	14.6	12.2	2.46
Nick Young	44	46	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.13	-21	15	-36	15.8	13.6	2.16	12.4	14.5	-2.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.62,0.42,0.53,0.64,0.53,0.26,0.2,0.05,0.09,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 99, DEN 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.33,0.32,0.15,0.09,0,0	90.9%
IND 85, PHI 74	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.52,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.27,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0	90.8%
SAS 88, GSW 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.01,0,0	90.8%