NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	126		Excitement	6.8 [508]		MVP	Gary Harris (DEN): +24.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers	117		Comeback	1.2 [483]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -10.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0.25	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25	0.27	0.02	0.05	17	80%	0.25	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Will Barton	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.06	-0.03	17	66%	0.22	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.02	0.14	0.00	9	55%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.06	-0.01	11	70%	0.17	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	7	57%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.02	10	80%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Nikola Jokic	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	8	47%	-0.03	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JR Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.03	-0.01	12	68%	0.19	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.03
Cedi Osman	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.00	0.02	7	93%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	9	58%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.02	0.01	10	64%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tristan Thompson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	10	57%	0.07	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02
George Hill	0,0,0,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.02	0.02	10	77%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
John Holland	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
London Perrantes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.02	0.05	19	51%	0.08	3	-0.10	11	73%	0.02
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Hood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	9	33%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	28.5	14.6	25.2	2.5	29.3	126.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +59.6%

CLE -10.9%

CLE -6.8%

DEN +2.6%

DEN +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CLE	NBA	DEN	CLE	NBA
this game	16.4	13.9	14.7	131.2	124.5	107.5
season	14.7	14.8		111.2	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.7		110.6	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.4	15.7	17.2	18.2	16.4
CLE	15.0	15.0	12.8	12.9	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	64	63	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-3	15	16.4	16.4	-0.05	13.9	13.9	0.07
Will Barton	66	64	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	1	7	16.2	16.8	-0.57	14.0	13.7	0.36
Jamal Murray	63	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-2	13	16.3	16.4	-0.08	13.7	14.4	-0.75
Gary Harris	74	72	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.18	7	2	5	16.3	16.7	-0.40	13.2	16.1	-2.84
Paul Millsap	52	51	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	2	5	17.1	15.5	1.53	13.0	15.0	-2.04
Wilson Chandler	55	55	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.07	7	2	5	16.5	16.1	0.40	13.4	14.6	-1.20
Richard Jefferson	31	30	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	7	-5	16.1	16.5	-0.46	15.3	13.3	2.03
Malik Beasley	10	11	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	6	-3	15.1	16.5	-1.42	17.9	13.4	4.52
Mason Plumlee	32	31	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	12	-15	16.4	16.4	0.05	13.9	13.9	-0.07
Devin Harris	33	30	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.19	-9	18	-27	16.3	16.4	-0.16	15.4	13.2	2.23

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Clarkson	45	46	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.27	11	-20	31	14.0	13.8	0.21	16.5	16.3	0.24
Larry Nance Jr.	37	38	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.25	9	-18	27	14.7	13.4	1.25	16.7	16.1	0.60
Kyle Korver	15	14	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-10	11	15.8	13.6	2.24	15.3	16.6	-1.28
John Holland	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-9	9	0.0	13.9	-13.91	20.0	16.3	3.66
London Perrantes	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-9	9	0.0	13.9	-13.91	20.0	16.3	3.66
Rodney Hood	49	52	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.22	-1	-8	7	14.1	13.7	0.35	16.5	16.2	0.23
Cedi Osman	48	48	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.09	-15	6	-21	15.3	12.5	2.77	15.7	17.1	-1.37
LeBron James	83	85	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.28	-6	-3	-3	13.4	17.9	-4.52	16.5	15.5	0.94
George Hill	68	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.08	-13	4	-17	13.4	15.2	-1.71	16.2	16.7	-0.53
Tristan Thompson	57	58	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.01	-18	9	-27	13.4	14.7	-1.25	16.1	16.7	-0.60
JR Smith	68	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.18	-13	4	-17	13.5	15.1	-1.61	16.8	15.2	1.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.18,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.09,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 93, MEM 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.27,0.17,0.36,0.26,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.16,0.1,0.15,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.02,0	93.3%
NOP 116, DET 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.25,0.22,0.34,0.4,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.02,0	93.2%
WAS 92, NOP 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.22,0.15,0.08,0.01,0,0	93.2%