NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	134		Excitement	4.6 [935]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +24.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	123		Comeback	1.2 [600]		LVP	Khris Middleton (MIL): -4.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.21	0.05	0.02	12	90%	0.27	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.15	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	14	91%	0.27	8	-0.12	5	100%	0.02
Gary Harris	0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.01	-0.01	18	68%	0.15	4	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Trey Lyles	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	10	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.09	-0.01	0.09	13	61%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	9	61%	0.04	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.06	0.03	9	78%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	8	71%	0.09	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.10	0.01	0.10	21	67%	0.08	6	-0.07	12	58%	-0.09
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Munford	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marshall Plumlee	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Wilson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.16	-0.01	0.14	14	79%	0.05	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Thon Maker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Kilpatrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	11	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	17	46%	0.02	4	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.7	27.4	14.5	30.6	1.8	29.4	130.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +47.5%

DEN +2.4%

MIL -0.9%

MIL -0.1%

DEN +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	14.3	13.9	14.7	131.4	120.6	107.5
season	14.7	14.3		111.2	108.5
opponent	15.4	14.7		108.9	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.8	13.7	14.5	17.3	14.3
MIL	17.0	14.0	13.7	10.8	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	76	76	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.08	18	-7	25	14.1	15.0	-0.83	14.1	13.4	0.68
Gary Harris	84	85	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.18	13	-2	15	14.2	15.2	-1.00	14.0	13.2	0.86
Nikola Jokic	72	73	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	0	11	14.1	14.9	-0.79	13.6	14.6	-1.02
Will Barton	84	85	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	0	11	14.1	15.4	-1.27	14.1	12.6	1.49
Wilson Chandler	80	78	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.41	-2	13	-15	15.2	11.2	3.97	13.3	15.8	-2.48
Devin Harris	41	41	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	7	-3	14.2	14.4	-0.21	14.0	13.8	0.22
Trey Lyles	34	33	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	10	-9	14.9	14.1	0.81	14.7	13.5	1.23
Juancho Hernangomez	3	3	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	11	-11	6.3	14.6	-8.25	8.3	14.1	-5.73
Darrell Arthur	25	25	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.14	5	6	-1	13.8	14.5	-0.67	15.3	13.4	1.89
Malik Beasley	11	11	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	17	-23	16.3	14.1	2.16	11.0	14.2	-3.24

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Xavier Munford	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	15.0	13.9	1.12	21.0	14.3	6.72
Marshall Plumlee	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	15.0	13.9	1.12	21.0	14.3	6.72
D.J. Wilson	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	15.0	13.9	1.12	21.0	14.3	6.72
Sterling Brown	27	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.14	-7	-4	-3	15.9	13.2	2.77	14.0	14.5	-0.51
Jason Terry	19	20	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.09	-7	-4	-3	14.5	13.7	0.78	14.8	14.2	0.57
Jabari Parker	33	33	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	-4	-3	15.6	13.1	2.53	14.1	14.5	-0.42
Tyler Zeller	63	62	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.47	9	-20	29	13.4	14.7	-1.30	15.2	13.1	2.09
Sean Kilpatrick	8	7	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-5	-1	14.9	13.8	1.07	16.1	14.2	1.93
Eric Bledsoe	80	80	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.25	-1	-10	9	13.6	14.8	-1.18	14.0	15.5	-1.47
Thon Maker	38	39	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.29	-20	9	-29	14.7	13.4	1.26	12.9	15.3	-2.38
Khris Middleton	82	83	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.13	-8	-3	-5	13.9	13.7	0.24	13.7	17.2	-3.52
Giannis Antetokounmpo	84	84	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-8	5	13.1	17.8	-4.72	15.0	11.5	3.45
Tony Snell	73	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	-6	1	13.2	15.5	-2.27	14.5	13.9	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.13,0.11,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 115, HOU 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.34,0.36,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.2%
SAC 98, MIL 73	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
UTA 94, LAC 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.22,0.14,0.2,0.17,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%