NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	109		Excitement	7.2 [432]		MVP	Joffrey Lauvergne (SAS): +26.1%
Denver Nuggets	117		Comeback	3.7 [545]		LVP	Dejounte Murray (SAS): -14.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.14	0.14	0.02	15	76%	0.28	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Tony Parker	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.07	-0.01	11	65%	0.17	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Danny Green	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	87%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Davis Bertans	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	9	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Paul	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	80%	0.08	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Darrun Hilliard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	10	45%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Bryn Forbes	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	28%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Patty Mills	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	3	25%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.05
Dejounte Murray	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.03	-0.10	0.01	10	60%	0.03	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.13	-0.00	6	73%	0.21	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.01	-0.00	15	64%	0.15	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.07	-0.02	19	53%	0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.08	-0.01	4	58%	0.14	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.00	0.02	9	81%	0.13	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	2	125%	0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.02	0.03	17	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	19	42%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	40.2	4.4	28.5	3.4	27.3	133.5
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +6.8%

DEN +14.3%

DEN +1.6%

DEN +26.3%

DEN +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.7	14.0	14.7	109.0	115.8	107.5
season	15.5	14.7		106.7	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.5		109.9	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.5	14.1	13.8	16.7	14.7
DEN	14.3	12.1	13.9	16.0	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joffrey Lauvergne	49	49	0.29	-0.79	1.07	-0.24	18	-26	44	14.2	15.1	-0.85	15.0	13.1	1.90
Bryn Forbes	40	40	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.16	7	-15	22	14.9	14.5	0.32	13.8	14.1	-0.30
Brandon Paul	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-10	12	7.0	14.8	-7.76	10.0	14.0	-4.02
Danny Green	68	67	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-8	8	14.8	14.5	0.31	14.6	12.8	1.79
Manu Ginobili	28	31	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-8	8	14.4	14.8	-0.35	12.8	14.5	-1.74
Derrick White	4	5	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-6	4	17.2	14.6	2.68	11.4	14.1	-2.71
Tony Parker	45	46	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.15	-2	-6	4	14.7	14.7	0.06	13.4	14.4	-1.00
Darrun Hilliard	7	6	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.12	-3	-5	2	14.9	14.7	0.19	8.8	14.3	-5.47
Patty Mills	53	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-6	4	14.0	15.4	-1.45	14.9	12.9	1.92
Dejounte Murray	58	57	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.06	-8	0	-8	15.0	14.3	0.72	14.4	13.5	0.89
Davis Bertans	56	57	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-3	-2	14.7	14.6	0.08	14.8	13.0	1.82
Pau Gasol	45	45	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	0.03	-21	13	-34	15.3	14.2	1.07	13.1	14.7	-1.61
Kyle Anderson	46	46	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	0.05	-24	16	-40	14.7	14.7	-0.05	13.0	14.8	-1.84

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	78	77	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.16	19	-11	30	13.9	14.3	-0.36	15.6	11.7	3.82
Will Barton	90	90	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.25	15	-7	22	14.1	13.1	1.00	14.6	15.1	-0.47
Nikola Jokic	70	68	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	-3	14	14.2	13.6	0.58	15.0	14.1	0.91
Gary Harris	74	72	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.19	6	2	4	14.5	12.6	1.94	14.7	14.6	0.05
Wilson Chandler	72	71	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	-2	12	14.4	12.8	1.62	14.2	16.0	-1.81
Trey Lyles	35	36	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.22	-5	13	-18	13.6	14.2	-0.58	14.2	14.9	-0.67
Devin Harris	43	44	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	10	-12	13.6	14.3	-0.65	14.5	14.8	-0.32
Malik Beasley	28	28	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.16	-4	12	-16	12.6	14.5	-1.90	15.0	14.6	0.44
Monte Morris	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	10	-12	10.0	14.0	-4.02	7.0	14.8	-7.76
Darrell Arthur	14	13	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.10	-8	16	-24	12.9	14.2	-1.30	12.8	15.0	-2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.27,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.55,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.89,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 87, HOU 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.66,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.95,1	92.9%
MIL 97, POR 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.64,0.76,0.86,0.95,1,1,1,1	92.7%
MIN 103, WAS 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.87,0.97,0.93,1,1,1	92.2%