NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	2.6 [1242]		MVP	Luc Mbah a Moute (HOU): +11.0%
Houston Rockets	130		Comeback	1.0 [1240]		LVP	Gary Harris (DEN): -9.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Arthur	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.00	0.05	8	78%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Wilson Chandler	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.01	8	55%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Torrey Craig	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	9	44%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	6	54%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.12	0.00	0.12	15	65%	-0.01	1	0.00	7	100%	0.01
Monte Morris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	0.00	0.08	5	83%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	8	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	8	35%	-0.01	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Gary Harris	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	0.00	11	33%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.16	0.00	0.05	5	108%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.01	16	65%	0.13	5	-0.04	11	82%	0.01
Clint Capela	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	15	56%	0.08	1	-0.02	11	45%	-0.04
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	0.00	0.07	4	112%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	9	60%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Tarik Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.02	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.02	14	53%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Markel Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	0.00	0.06	8	52%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.5	26.9	14.8	28.9	2.0	26.0	125.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +29.5%

HOU +4.6%

HOU +11.2%

HOU +5.6%

DEN -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.4	14.2	14.7	103.0	130.0	107.5
season	14.7	14.6		111.2	112.8
opponent	14.8	14.7		105.6	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.4	14.8	14.2	13.2	14.4
HOU	12.3	15.2	14.0	15.6	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	36	36	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.07	2	-28	30	12.6	15.4	-2.79	15.2	13.7	1.48
Juan Hernangomez	36	36	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.07	2	-28	30	12.6	15.4	-2.79	15.2	13.7	1.48
Darrell Arthur	12	13	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-25	24	16.1	14.2	1.90	14.5	14.2	0.33
Monte Morris	45	46	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-25	24	13.5	15.1	-1.65	14.9	13.7	1.23
Trey Lyles	56	58	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-25	24	13.9	15.0	-1.11	14.3	14.2	0.06
Torrey Craig	60	59	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-21	16	13.9	15.1	-1.16	14.4	14.0	0.34
Wilson Chandler	50	48	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.32	-24	-2	-22	14.8	14.0	0.82	14.1	14.4	-0.32
Nikola Jokic	46	45	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.31	-24	-2	-22	15.4	13.6	1.81	13.4	15.0	-1.59
Jamal Murray	56	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.32	-25	-1	-24	15.1	13.5	1.65	13.7	14.9	-1.23
Gary Harris	51	48	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.34	-26	0	-26	15.4	13.4	1.91	13.7	14.7	-0.96
Will Barton	57	57	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.32	-27	1	-28	15.3	13.2	2.05	14.1	14.5	-0.42

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	58	59	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.25	23	3	20	13.6	15.2	-1.62	14.7	14.0	0.69
Clint Capela	60	62	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.49	31	-5	36	13.9	14.7	-0.75	15.0	13.5	1.41
Luc Mbah a Moute	49	49	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.23	21	5	16	14.3	14.2	0.03	15.0	13.9	1.07
Eric Gordon	56	58	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.36	24	2	22	14.4	14.1	0.28	14.7	14.0	0.63
PJ Tucker	61	61	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.07	8	18	-10	14.4	14.1	0.33	13.9	15.2	-1.31
Chris Paul	45	46	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.50	25	1	24	14.0	14.5	-0.54	15.4	13.6	1.81
Ryan Anderson	63	64	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.06	10	16	-6	14.7	13.5	1.17	14.2	14.7	-0.47
Gerald Green	54	55	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	23	-20	14.4	14.1	0.26	13.9	15.1	-1.21
Tarik Black	35	33	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.22	-6	32	-38	14.3	14.2	0.10	13.5	14.8	-1.28
Markel Brown	19	18	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	35	-44	15.3	14.0	1.25	12.3	14.9	-2.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 89, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%
CHI 80, BOS 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
MIN 83, SEA 108	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%