NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	108		Excitement	8.4 [216]		MVP	Kevin Durant (GSW): +39.1%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	6.8 [105]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -17.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.39	0.21	0.17	-0.01	16	76%	0.41	1	-0.02	9	78%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	4	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	7	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	15	53%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	40%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick McCaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	7	62%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Damian Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	4	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.08
Draymond Green	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	12	31%	-0.03	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17	0.05	-0.15	0.07	16	67%	0.03	5	-0.21	4	75%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.07	0.02	17	66%	0.28	2	-0.12	4	100%	0.03
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.06	0.00	10	58%	0.14	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.09	0.00	16	54%	0.22	4	-0.13	3	100%	0.03
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	9	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.01
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Gary Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	13	48%	0.02	3	-0.06	7	86%	0.04
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	6	42%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	9	39%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	27.0	14.8	29.2	1.8	35.2	137.8
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -8.2%

DEN +23.2%

DEN +37.5%

GSW -3.4%

DEN +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	12.7	15.8	14.7	106.9	113.9	107.5
season	13.7	14.7		112.6	111.2
opponent	14.7	15.1		109.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.8	11.7	15.2	12.5	12.7
DEN	15.3	14.6	16.8	16.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	42	40	0.36	-0.86	1.21	0.01	12	-19	31	12.0	13.2	-1.28	16.5	15.3	1.22
Damian Jones	8	9	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.05	1	-8	9	14.1	12.6	1.54	17.9	15.6	2.28
Patrick McCaw	0	2	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-7	7	0.0	12.7	-12.70	11.5	15.9	-4.40
JaVale McGee	13	14	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.07	-2	-5	3	13.2	12.6	0.61	14.6	16.0	-1.44
Kevon Looney	15	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-7	7	15.1	12.3	2.85	16.7	15.7	1.08
Stephen Curry	77	74	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.33	4	-11	15	12.2	14.4	-2.19	16.2	14.7	1.51
Andre Iguodala	42	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	0	-7	14.2	11.6	2.55	15.1	16.3	-1.17
Klay Thompson	76	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	0	-7	12.3	14.0	-1.67	16.1	14.9	1.24
Kevin Durant	87	88	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.36	1	-8	9	12.3	15.1	-2.75	16.2	13.2	2.96
Shaun Livingston	30	31	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	8	-23	14.2	12.1	2.18	14.7	16.3	-1.64
Nick Young	38	37	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.28	-11	4	-15	12.2	13.0	-0.83	15.1	16.2	-1.07
Draymond Green	77	76	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.34	-11	4	-15	12.6	13.0	-0.39	15.4	17.2	-1.79

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wilson Chandler	49	52	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.37	16	-9	25	15.8	15.8	0.01	12.6	12.8	-0.22
Gary Harris	85	83	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	4	-1	15.8	16.0	-0.22	12.0	16.0	-4.01
Will Barton	74	74	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.37	1	6	-5	16.1	15.1	0.91	12.5	13.3	-0.76
Jamal Murray	59	58	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.39	0	7	-7	16.2	15.3	0.90	12.2	13.4	-1.21
Nikola Jokic	70	69	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	7	-7	16.5	14.2	2.34	12.7	12.8	-0.11
Emmanuel Mudiay	44	44	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.08	7	0	7	15.1	16.4	-1.32	13.3	12.2	1.05
Darrell Arthur	29	29	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.13	8	-1	9	14.9	16.2	-1.24	13.9	12.2	1.63
Trey Lyles	54	52	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.24	8	-1	9	15.4	16.3	-0.83	13.7	11.7	2.04
Malik Beasley	1	2	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	10	-13	3.0	15.9	-12.94	3.5	12.9	-9.39
Torrey Craig	40	42	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.02	-5	12	-17	15.9	15.7	0.19	13.2	12.4	0.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.45,0.57,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.3,0.29,0.46,0.68,0.63,0.77,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 94, PHI 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.78,0.87,1	92.6%
ORL 97, DET 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.19,0.27,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.69,0.45,0.77,0.91,1	91.8%
DET 97, PHX 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.6,0.75,0.71,0.83,0.91,1	91.7%