NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	7.9 [284]		MVP	Kyle Anderson (SAS): +24.0%
San Antonio Spurs	106		Comeback	2.9 [672]		LVP	Will Barton (DEN): -28.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Emmanuel Mudiay	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.07	0.00	10	70%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	12	62%	0.12	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Gary Harris	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.02	12	61%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Torrey Craig	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.01	9	44%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	6	77%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.05	0.01	11	59%	0.12	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	10	35%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.28	-0.09	-0.22	-0.02	13	43%	-0.17	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.11	0.13	-0.00	12	75%	0.27	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.17,0.17,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.14	-0.01	12	56%	0.22	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.12	-0.01	5	60%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	13	64%	0.16	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	5	70%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.03	-0.07	0.03	23	62%	0.10	6	-0.17	2	100%	0.02
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	0.01	11	27%	-0.11	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.8	26.1	14.5	27.3	2.4	31.4	127.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +54.7%

DEN -13.0%

SAS +10.9%

DEN -10.1%

SAS +7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	13.4	17.1	14.7	109.5	112.8	107.5
season	14.7	15.5		111.2	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.7		104.1	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	13.1	12.3	13.7	13.4
SAS	15.0	19.0	17.2	17.6	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Emmanuel Mudiay	29	29	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.03	6	-8	14	12.9	13.6	-0.63	15.8	17.7	-1.98
Darrell Arthur	39	39	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.04	6	-8	14	12.8	13.7	-0.89	17.3	17.0	0.35
Malik Beasley	27	28	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.01	-1	-1	0	12.9	13.5	-0.62	16.1	17.6	-1.45
Richard Jefferson	12	13	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-2	2	11.7	13.6	-1.85	14.5	17.6	-3.09
Trey Lyles	50	49	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.17	2	-4	6	13.7	13.0	0.74	16.7	17.6	-0.99
Torrey Craig	42	39	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	4	-10	13.7	13.1	0.62	17.1	17.2	-0.09
Will Barton	77	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.49	4	-6	10	13.0	14.8	-1.81	17.5	15.7	1.81
Gary Harris	68	67	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.43	-5	3	-8	13.3	13.5	-0.16	17.7	15.6	2.15
Jamal Murray	66	65	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.41	-8	6	-14	13.6	12.9	0.63	17.7	15.8	1.98
Nikola Jokic	65	65	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.49	-8	6	-14	14.1	11.7	2.39	17.3	16.7	0.63

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	72	74	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.40	14	-12	26	17.4	16.1	1.29	13.9	11.4	2.55
Bryn Forbes	31	31	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.30	15	-13	28	17.3	17.0	0.24	14.8	12.7	2.18
Kyle Anderson	67	67	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.47	5	-3	8	17.9	15.3	2.52	12.9	14.5	-1.55
Manu Ginobili	43	47	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.24	4	-2	6	16.9	17.4	-0.49	13.0	13.7	-0.64
Patty Mills	37	40	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	3	-4	17.5	16.9	0.55	13.8	13.1	0.70
Dejounte Murray	53	51	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.21	0	2	-2	16.7	17.6	-0.90	13.6	13.1	0.43
Danny Green	53	50	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.33	-5	7	-12	17.4	16.7	0.70	13.4	13.3	0.11
Tony Parker	34	36	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.13	1	1	0	16.9	17.2	-0.29	12.6	13.8	-1.17
Davis Bertans	32	32	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.04	-5	7	-12	16.5	17.4	-0.90	13.6	13.3	0.34
Pau Gasol	48	47	-0.40	0.90	-1.31	0.12	-18	20	-38	16.2	18.1	-1.96	12.3	14.4	-2.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.69,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.78,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 118, TOR 122	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.73,0.62,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.63,0.9,0.95,1	92.8%
WAS 98, TOR 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.85,0.98,1,1	92.3%
CHH 87, SAC 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.71,0.5,0.52,0.37,0.29,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.34,0.53,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.74,1	91.8%