NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	107		Excitement	7.9 [300]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +63.9%
Houston Rockets	114		Comeback	1.7 [1013]		LVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): -5.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marreese Speights	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.12	0.17	-0.00	11	74%	0.34	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Shelvin Mack	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.11	0.00	5	107%	0.27	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Mario Hezonja	0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22	0.10	0.10	-0.03	12	71%	0.26	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.05	-0.01	10	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Khem Birch	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.07	-0.01	13	58%	0.11	1	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Wes Iwundu	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.09	-0.04	12	46%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.64	0.64	0.40	0.23	-0.00	30	77%	0.87	5	-0.23	18	94%	0.10
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.05	-0.02	5	90%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	83%	0.12	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Clint Capela	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	14	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	6	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	11	46%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	0.8	26.2	14.5	25.2	1.8	33.0	127.2
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -4.3%

HOU +13.6%

HOU +29.0%

HOU +9.3%

HOU +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	HOU	NBA	ORL	HOU	NBA
this game	15.9	15.4	14.7	117.6	122.6	107.5
season	14.6	14.6		104.2	112.8
opponent	14.8	14.5		105.6	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.4	17.2	14.6	16.6	15.9
HOU	14.0	12.8	15.4	20.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D.J. Augustin	52	54	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-8	9	17.0	14.5	2.54	14.5	16.7	-2.23
Elfrid Payton	35	35	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-6	5	14.8	16.6	-1.85	15.7	15.2	0.55
Wes Iwundu	40	40	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.04	1	-8	9	17.1	15.0	2.16	14.2	16.3	-2.10
Arron Afflalo	27	28	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-7	7	17.6	15.2	2.34	15.1	15.5	-0.42
Bismack Biyombo	42	42	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-2	-3	15.5	16.3	-0.77	14.7	16.0	-1.29
Khem Birch	10	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-2	-3	16.9	15.8	1.11	12.0	15.8	-3.81
Marreese Speights	38	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.33	7	-14	21	15.9	15.9	-0.07	17.1	14.1	2.98
Shelvin Mack	46	46	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-6	5	16.6	15.2	1.36	16.0	14.8	1.28
Evan Fournier	53	54	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.36	-4	-3	-1	15.1	17.0	-1.91	15.4	15.5	-0.11
Mario Hezonja	46	48	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.30	-13	6	-19	14.7	17.2	-2.46	16.8	13.9	2.84
Jonathon Simmons	66	69	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.25	-15	8	-23	15.4	17.2	-1.83	15.4	15.5	-0.14

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clint Capela	59	56	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.24	13	-6	19	15.9	14.4	1.51	15.2	17.1	-1.86
Ryan Anderson	62	61	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.31	8	-1	9	16.3	13.7	2.58	16.3	15.2	1.06
James Harden	90	88	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.28	7	0	7	15.5	12.7	2.82	15.7	22.3	-6.64
Luc Mbah a Moute	76	75	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.33	3	4	-1	15.6	14.3	1.35	15.7	17.0	-1.32
PJ Tucker	68	65	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	4	-1	15.3	15.6	-0.28	16.3	14.9	1.38
Eric Gordon	21	20	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	2	3	14.0	15.8	-1.87	16.6	15.7	0.95
Gerald Green	62	63	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	5	-3	14.9	16.4	-1.44	16.4	14.7	1.68
Nene	27	27	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.04	-6	13	-19	13.6	16.1	-2.49	15.3	16.2	-0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.43,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 79, MIN 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.45,0.67,0.95,1	92.6%
CLE 59, SAS 64	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.77,0.82,1	92.5%
CLE 102, ORL 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.74,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.38,0.28,0.55,0.73,1	92.3%