NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	102		Excitement	9.1 [133]		MVP	Steve Francis (ORL): +11.0%
Orlando Magic	105		Comeback	3.4 [574]		LVP	Eric Snow (CLE): -30.1%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff McInnis	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	16	56%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Lucious Harris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	54%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
LeBron James	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	20	53%	0.03	3	-0.08	13	62%	-0.10
Robert Traylor	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	11	52%	0.03	3	-0.13	1	0%	-0.03
Drew Gooden	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.03	0.02	14	47%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.16	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	13	41%	-0.13	1	-0.03	8	75%	-0.00
Eric Snow	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.2,-0.3	-0.05	-0.26	-0.00	8	29%	-0.30	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.05

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Francis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.01,-0.01,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.11	0.01	14	75%	0.39	7	-0.28	12	83%	0.11
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.01	8	78%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	0.00	4	62%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	7	71%	0.09	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	7	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	6	17%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.02	-0.18	-0.01	15	60%	-0.05	4	-0.13	5	60%	-0.16

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.5	32.3	16.4	22.2	1.8	37.5	141.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +68.4%

ORL +16.6%

CLE -14.0%

CLE -21.3%

ORL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	ORL	NBA	CLE	ORL	NBA
this game	17.5	13.8	15.5	110.9	114.1	104.0
season	16.2	14.3		104.6	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.3		105.1	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	16.9	16.4	17.0	19.8	17.5
ORL	13.1	14.2	13.0	15.2	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Gooden	64	65	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.09	3	-6	9	17.3	18.0	-0.70	13.1	15.5	-2.34
DeSagana Diop	9	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-4	5	17.3	17.5	-0.16	17.4	13.4	4.01
Lucious Harris	12	13	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-5	7	16.5	17.6	-1.13	13.5	13.9	-0.33
Sasha Pavlovic	35	35	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	9	-21	17.0	17.8	-0.77	12.0	15.0	-2.99
Robert Traylor	59	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.62	10	-13	23	17.1	18.2	-1.05	14.5	12.7	1.73
LeBron James	84	83	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.39	-3	0	-3	17.1	21.7	-4.68	14.0	11.8	2.27
Eric Snow	45	45	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.49	0	-3	3	18.6	16.4	2.15	14.9	12.8	2.08
Jeff McInnis	85	85	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.43	-3	0	-3	17.6	16.4	1.14	13.5	17.3	-3.74
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	67	67	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.22	-13	10	-23	18.1	15.8	2.36	13.9	13.8	0.09

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Francis	75	73	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.53	12	-9	21	13.0	17.5	-4.47	17.6	17.2	0.40
Grant Hill	62	63	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.43	10	-7	17	13.5	14.5	-1.05	17.4	17.6	-0.21
Tony Battie	73	74	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.37	12	-9	21	13.9	13.5	0.38	17.9	15.7	2.25
Dwight Howard	63	64	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.44	9	-6	15	13.6	14.3	-0.71	18.0	16.2	1.82
Doug Christie	66	67	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	4	-5	14.1	13.2	0.88	17.3	18.0	-0.77
Andrew DeClercq	3	2	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.04	0	3	-3	13.0	13.9	-0.85	15.0	17.5	-2.53
Pat Garrity	26	26	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	6	-9	13.6	13.9	-0.29	16.6	17.8	-1.26
Hedo Turkoglu	48	48	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.03	-5	8	-13	14.5	13.0	1.50	17.7	17.2	0.44
Jameer Nelson	25	25	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.04	-7	10	-17	15.1	13.3	1.78	17.6	17.4	0.11
Kelvin Cato	19	18	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.04	-12	15	-27	14.7	13.6	1.08	15.3	18.0	-2.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.74,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.38,0.28,0.55,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 107, HOU 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.43,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.85,1	92.3%
VAN 98, PHX 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.53,0.45,0.63,0.76,0.85,1	92.0%
ORL 106, LAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.36,0.53,0.34,0.53,0.37,0.67,0.73,1	92.0%