NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	118		Excitement	6.1 [638]		MVP	Anthony Tolliver (DET): +28.8%
Detroit Pistons	107		Comeback	2.4 [339]		LVP	Avery Bradley (DET): -14.8%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0.21	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.20	0.03	0.02	8	111%	0.27	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Johnny O'Bryant III	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	5	64%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kemba Walker	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	18	54%	0.08	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	8	55%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Dwight Howard	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.01	0.08	12	70%	0.10	3	-0.07	6	50%	-0.06
Treveon Graham	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.05	0.01	9	44%	0.02	2	-0.02	7	43%	0.00
Frank Kaminsky	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	36%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	13	44%	-0.02	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.20	0.08	0.00	7	121%	0.29	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.03	0.02	13	77%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.02	0.04	14	63%	0.09	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Eric Moreland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.11	-0.04	0.11	13	67%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Dwight Buycks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	5	45%	-0.02	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	7	19%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.03	0.00	19	37%	-0.08	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.8	23.2	14.5	24.4	1.8	34.0	123.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +9.0%

CHA +14.9%

CHA +15.2%

CHA +8.0%

CHA +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	DET	NBA	CHA	DET	NBA
this game	14.2	13.5	14.7	113.5	102.9	107.5
season	14.6	14.9		108.7	106.4
opponent	14.7	14.5		106.3	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.6	15.3	15.6	11.8	14.2
DET	13.6	12.9	14.4	13.1	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	65	66	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.02	18	-7	25	12.7	16.8	-4.08	13.8	12.8	1.03
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	73	73	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.02	14	-3	17	13.0	17.2	-4.23	13.7	13.0	0.63
Dwight Howard	79	79	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.00	14	-3	17	13.7	15.8	-2.08	13.6	12.9	0.73
Treveon Graham	21	22	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.11	7	4	3	17.9	13.3	4.56	13.7	13.4	0.27
Michael Carter-Williams	24	26	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	4	3	17.2	13.3	3.94	13.4	13.5	-0.06
Kemba Walker	80	78	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	7	-3	13.3	17.2	-3.94	13.5	13.4	0.06
Jeremy Lamb	38	39	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.15	1	10	-9	16.2	13.1	3.18	13.0	13.8	-0.79
Johnny O'Bryant III	24	23	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.13	-2	13	-15	16.2	13.6	2.58	12.8	13.7	-0.83
Nicolas Batum	76	74	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	11	-11	13.4	16.4	-2.97	13.5	13.4	0.05
Frank Kaminsky	40	40	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.24	-8	19	-27	16.5	12.8	3.70	12.9	13.8	-0.97

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Kennard	52	51	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-16	21	12.9	14.1	-1.21	16.2	12.3	3.95
Anthony Tolliver	54	52	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-13	15	13.4	13.6	-0.17	15.7	12.7	3.02
Andre Drummond	73	75	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-10	9	13.3	13.9	-0.66	13.9	15.1	-1.18
Eric Moreland	25	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.01	-7	-4	-3	13.5	13.5	0.06	15.2	13.9	1.23
Ish Smith	77	78	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-7	3	13.7	12.9	0.84	13.2	17.2	-3.91
Dwight Buycks	27	26	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	-4	-3	12.9	13.7	-0.84	17.2	13.2	3.91
Avery Bradley	79	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.01	-15	4	-19	13.5	13.5	-0.01	13.5	16.6	-3.12
Reggie Bullock	77	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.11	-12	1	-13	13.9	12.3	1.59	13.6	15.9	-2.25
Tobias Harris	56	57	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.03	-16	5	-21	13.8	13.1	0.68	12.9	15.9	-2.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.35,0.45,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.1,0.04,0,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 102, MIN 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.43,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.24,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%
GSW 104, DEN 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0	93.1%
LAC 93, CHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.71,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.19,0.26,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.9%