NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	119		Excitement	7.8 [319]		MVP	Ian Mahinmi (WAS): +23.8%
Washington Wizards	125		Comeback	1.5 [1027]		LVP	Aaron Gordon (ORL): -25.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elfrid Payton	0.19	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.17	0.05	0.02	12	82%	0.28	3	-0.09	9	89%	0.03
Jonathon Simmons	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19	0.15	0.07	0.04	11	82%	0.25	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.06
Bismack Biyombo	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.20	0.01	0.02	9	87%	0.18	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Wes Iwundu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Marreese Speights	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.09	0.01	14	36%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.13,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25	-0.10	-0.17	-0.02	15	41%	-0.16	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.14	0.10	0.00	8	85%	0.29	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
John Wall	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.14	-0.00	21	64%	0.34	4	-0.10	5	60%	-0.01
Bradley Beal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.22	0.01	0.02	17	71%	0.21	0	0.00	8	75%	0.02
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.00	4	67%	0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.02	9	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Markieff Morris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	12	42%	0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	13	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.0	25.7	15.6	27.4	1.8	34.5	131.2
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +50.6%

ORL -3.9%

ORL -3.2%

WAS +6.4%

WAS +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	13.8	15.2	14.7	120.2	125.0	107.5
season	14.6	14.8		104.2	108.2
opponent	14.7	14.5		107.9	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.6	13.5	13.6	14.4	13.8
WAS	14.7	15.9	16.4	13.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D.J. Augustin	20	19	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-2	-2	17.8	12.7	5.05	13.6	15.5	-1.90
Wes Iwundu	26	27	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	-2	-2	16.2	12.9	3.29	13.5	15.8	-2.26
Arron Afflalo	13	13	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-1	-4	17.9	13.1	4.78	13.1	15.5	-2.41
Marreese Speights	28	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.06	-7	1	-8	16.7	12.6	4.06	12.5	16.3	-3.77
Jonathon Simmons	65	67	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.42	7	-13	20	13.3	14.6	-1.29	16.1	13.3	2.74
Evan Fournier	68	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.35	0	-6	6	12.2	17.1	-4.85	15.8	13.8	2.02
Bismack Biyombo	67	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.30	-2	-4	2	13.1	15.2	-2.14	16.3	13.1	3.12
Mario Hezonja	49	49	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.04	-11	5	-16	14.9	12.7	2.16	14.2	16.1	-1.93
Aaron Gordon	80	82	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.32	-2	-4	2	12.8	17.6	-4.78	15.5	13.9	1.56
Elfrid Payton	79	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-4	2	12.7	17.8	-5.05	15.5	13.6	1.90

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otto Porter Jr.	81	79	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.26	19	-13	32	15.3	14.7	0.53	14.5	10.9	3.59
Bradley Beal	75	76	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.37	9	-3	12	15.4	14.4	1.08	13.6	14.2	-0.59
Kelly Oubre Jr.	61	61	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.31	2	4	-2	13.9	17.1	-3.21	14.3	12.8	1.50
John Wall	77	76	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.43	-3	9	-12	15.6	13.7	1.86	12.4	18.3	-5.85
Marcin Gortat	56	57	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.31	-2	8	-10	16.4	13.5	2.90	12.3	15.8	-3.51
Ian Mahinmi	42	40	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	-1	8	14.0	16.0	-2.06	16.4	12.0	4.46
Mike Scott	33	33	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.09	4	2	2	14.2	15.6	-1.43	16.1	12.6	3.44
Markieff Morris	47	47	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.11	-4	10	-14	16.7	13.8	2.93	12.2	15.2	-2.92
Tomas Satoransky	28	26	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.13	-2	8	-10	13.5	15.8	-2.37	13.6	13.8	-0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.62,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.61,0.69,0.89,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 88, ATL 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.51,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.61,0.62,0.69,0.6,0.6,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.85,0.98,1,1	93.4%
HOU 99, ATL 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.47,0.75,0.89,0.9,0.96,1	93.1%
CHI 93, DEN 101	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.65,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.72,0.97,0.98,1	92.9%