NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	99		Excitement	7.3 [386]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +22.9%
Atlanta Hawks	105		Comeback	1.4 [456]		LVP	Luther Head (HOU): -9.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.13,0.16	0.15	0.02	0.02	28	55%	0.16	0	0.00	11	82%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.21,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.09	-0.00	18	61%	0.27	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	5	75%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Charles Hayes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kirk Snyder	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.02	14	63%	0.07	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	37%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.06
Luther Head	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23	0.23	0.12	0.13	0.02	22	62%	0.29	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.10	0.01	11	62%	0.20	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.07
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.00	0.11	0.00	7	50%	0.15	1	-0.04	10	80%	0.04
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	8	50%	0.08	1	-0.05	6	50%	-0.02
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	21	40%	-0.07	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.3	29.6	15.6	27.0	1.8	43.2	144.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +10.7%

ATL +16.6%

ATL +14.2%

ATL +11.7%

HOU -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	ATL	NBA	HOU	ATL	NBA
this game	16.1	15.3	15.4	107.6	115.4	104.5
season	15.6	16.1		103.6	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.7		106.1	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.7	16.6	17.3	15.9	16.1
ATL	18.9	13.4	15.4	14.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Lucas III	2	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.02	-1	-5	4	5.0	16.4	-11.38	1.0	15.5	-14.50
Charles Hayes	26	24	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-4	2	17.3	15.7	1.69	13.8	15.9	-2.10
Juwan Howard	68	66	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-5	4	15.6	17.5	-1.85	15.4	15.2	0.25
Shane Battier	60	60	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.21	0	-6	6	16.3	15.9	0.39	15.9	14.3	1.64
Luther Head	38	40	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.25	0	-6	6	14.9	17.0	-2.15	13.9	16.5	-2.57
Bonzi Wells	39	40	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.19	-7	1	-8	17.2	15.4	1.82	14.4	16.0	-1.59
Dikembe Mutombo	60	60	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-2	-2	16.3	15.8	0.54	17.1	11.8	5.31
Tracy McGrady	81	79	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.31	-6	0	-6	16.3	15.2	1.08	15.5	14.2	1.35
Rafer Alston	86	85	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.29	-9	3	-12	16.1	16.0	0.14	15.2	18.0	-2.85

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	85	86	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.42	9	-3	12	15.3	15.5	-0.17	16.2	15.5	0.67
Josh Childress	72	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.34	9	-3	12	14.2	19.7	-5.56	16.2	15.8	0.37
Zaza Pachulia	57	60	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.24	12	-6	18	15.2	15.5	-0.25	17.2	14.0	3.22
Joe Johnson	86	87	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.34	6	0	6	15.4	14.2	1.21	16.2	14.6	1.62
Marvin Williams	61	59	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.21	7	-1	8	15.9	14.3	1.60	15.6	17.1	-1.54
Shelden Williams	9	9	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	4	-2	12.4	15.7	-3.21	17.4	16.0	1.46
Royal Ivey	18	17	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	7	-8	18.4	14.6	3.87	16.0	16.2	-0.16
Lorenzen Wright	23	23	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	13	-20	19.0	14.1	4.84	14.7	16.6	-1.97
Speedy Claxton	44	45	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.02	-7	13	-20	14.0	16.6	-2.68	15.5	16.7	-1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.47,0.75,0.89,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 86, WAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.89,0.96,1	94.0%
WAS 86, DAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.5,0.66,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.53,0.56,0.79,0.94,0.98,1	93.9%
CHA 85, NOK 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.66,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.72,0.8,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.6,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.99,1	93.3%