NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	86		Excitement	7.2 [373]		MVP	Larry Hughes (WAS): +16.7%
Dallas Mavericks	92		Comeback	1.3 [1111]		LVP	Michael Jordan (WAS): -22.9%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.05	0.03	11	86%	0.27	2	-0.10	6	83%	0.04
Etan Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.06	0.01	5	80%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	22	51%	0.06	2	-0.09	11	91%	0.03
Brendan Haywood	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03
Tyronn Lue	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	10	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	0.00	7	28%	-0.10	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Jordan	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.09	-0.14	-0.00	15	41%	-0.11	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	3	87%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	7	64%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,0,-0.05,-0.11,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.01	23	50%	0.01	0	0.00	14	86%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	44%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	62%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Raja Bell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	18	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	13	48%	-0.05	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.14	-0.09	-0.01	7	14%	-0.16	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	27.6	16.5	23.4	2.3	30.4	129.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +2.5%

WAS -5.3%

DAL +25.7%

DAL +29.5%

WAS -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DAL	NBA	WAS	DAL	NBA
this game	16.4	15.1	15.5	93.5	101.1	101.6
season	16.5	15.1		100.9	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.5		102.0	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.5	17.5	18.3	15.5	16.4
DAL	13.7	14.4	14.5	17.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	25	25	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-9	12	16.4	16.4	0.07	14.2	15.4	-1.26
Etan Thomas	2	1	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-5	4	24.0	16.2	7.78	15.0	15.1	-0.08
Kwame Brown	38	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	1	-8	16.6	16.2	0.41	13.9	15.8	-1.87
Bryon Russell	44	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-2	-2	17.0	15.8	1.21	14.9	15.2	-0.37
Larry Hughes	65	66	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.40	5	-11	16	16.3	16.7	-0.39	16.1	12.4	3.64
Michael Jordan	69	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.25	-2	-4	2	16.4	16.4	0.00	14.8	15.9	-1.06
Tyronn Lue	59	59	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	2	-10	16.1	17.0	-0.90	15.3	14.6	0.70
Jerry Stackhouse	83	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.34	-6	0	-6	16.3	16.8	-0.43	15.1	14.8	0.33
Christian Laettner	75	75	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.30	-10	4	-14	16.1	17.8	-1.68	15.2	14.6	0.55

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	87	87	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.28	8	-2	10	15.2	12.5	2.70	16.1	21.0	-4.87
Steve Nash	69	68	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.30	7	-1	8	15.2	14.6	0.64	16.2	16.9	-0.71
Dirk Nowitzki	91	92	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	15.1	0.0	15.08	16.4	0.0	16.39
Nick Van Exel	45	46	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.16	9	-3	12	14.4	15.8	-1.43	16.3	16.5	-0.13
Shawn Bradley	42	41	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.01	11	-5	16	15.1	15.1	0.03	17.3	15.7	1.63
Raef LaFrentz	35	38	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	6	-6	15.7	14.7	1.08	16.3	16.5	-0.17
Walt Williams	45	46	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	5	-4	15.3	14.9	0.38	17.1	15.7	1.48
Raja Bell	1	2	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	9	-12	25.0	15.0	10.03	17.0	16.4	0.62
Adrian Griffin	40	40	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.18	-9	15	-24	14.3	15.7	-1.39	15.6	17.0	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.5,0.66,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.53,0.56,0.79,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 99, ATL 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.47,0.75,0.89,0.9,0.96,1	93.9%
SAC 86, WAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.89,0.96,1	93.0%
MIN 85, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.7,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.72,0.78,0.91,1	92.5%