NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	93		Excitement	7.0 [418]		MVP	Scott Williams (DEN): +18.8%
Denver Nuggets	101		Comeback	1.4 [1047]		LVP	James Posey (DEN): -25.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Anthony	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	10	60%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.03
Brad Miller	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	14	64%	0.04	1	-0.01	11	64%	-0.06
Marcus Fizer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	61%	0.10	1	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Fred Hoiberg	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ron Mercer	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.05	-0.08	0.03	17	53%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Robinson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	12	40%	-0.06	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Kevin Ollie	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dalibor Bagaric	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	4	30%	-0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Charles Oakley	-0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	6	17%	-0.09	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.10	0.01	5	89%	0.19	0	0.00	8	100%	0.05
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.01	0.03	10	86%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Shawnelle Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	5	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	64%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Isaiah Rider	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	22	47%	-0.05	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.12	-0.14	-0.01	10	32%	-0.19	1	-0.06	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	30.1	15.5	27.0	1.5	28.6	128.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +26.9%

DEN +2.1%

DEN +12.4%

DEN +7.8%

DEN +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DEN	NBA	CHI	DEN	NBA
this game	16.8	16.4	15.6	108.1	116.1	102.3
season	15.6	16.1		96.3	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.6		105.9	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.0	17.7	16.4	17.3	16.8
DEN	16.7	14.3	18.8	16.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Oakley	59	62	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.20	6	-14	20	15.4	20.0	-4.59	16.7	15.8	0.85
Fred Hoiberg	25	26	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-6	4	17.5	16.6	0.95	16.8	16.3	0.57
Trenton Hassell	19	18	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-4	0	20.2	15.9	4.25	14.8	16.9	-2.04
Kevin Ollie	25	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	-2	-4	20.5	15.4	5.12	16.2	16.5	-0.27
Dalibor Bagaric	18	17	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	0	-8	19.4	16.2	3.28	16.2	16.5	-0.34
Greg Anthony	61	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.24	-2	-6	4	15.4	20.5	-5.12	16.5	16.2	0.27
Ron Mercer	67	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	-4	0	15.9	20.2	-4.25	16.9	14.8	2.04
Marcus Fizer	28	27	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.06	-10	2	-12	19.7	15.5	4.25	16.9	16.2	0.64
Brad Miller	67	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-4	0	16.2	19.1	-2.83	16.1	17.6	-1.51
Eddie Robinson	61	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.28	-6	-2	-4	16.6	17.5	-0.95	16.3	16.8	-0.57

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	63	62	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.33	7	1	6	15.6	18.8	-3.24	16.9	16.7	0.25
Scott Williams	47	46	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.15	11	-3	14	16.5	16.4	0.04	16.8	16.8	-0.00
Avery Johnson	49	48	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.22	7	1	6	16.5	16.4	0.14	18.0	15.3	2.70
James Posey	75	73	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.27	5	3	2	16.8	14.1	2.74	16.6	18.5	-1.90
Nick Van Exel	74	73	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	5	-2	16.8	14.7	2.06	16.1	21.2	-5.07
Ryan Bowen	20	21	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.01	5	3	2	15.8	16.6	-0.78	16.8	16.9	-0.05
Isaiah Rider	10	11	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.02	5	3	2	14.9	16.6	-1.75	21.1	16.2	4.86
Shawnelle Scott	17	17	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	7	-6	17.6	16.2	1.42	19.8	16.1	3.71
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	34	33	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	7	-6	15.7	16.9	-1.27	15.9	17.4	-1.48
George McCloud	46	46	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	13	-18	17.2	15.6	1.63	15.7	18.1	-2.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.65,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.72,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 80, NJN 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.82,0.74,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.38,0.58,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.73,0.62,0.77,0.96,1,1	93.2%
POR 93, MIL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.66,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.97,0.98,1	93.0%
BOS 96, IND 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.79,0.85,0.96,1	92.9%