NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	96		Excitement	7.8 [279]		MVP	Rik Smits (IND): +14.2%
Indiana Pacers	99		Comeback	1.1 [1016]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -17.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08	0.00	0.08	0.00	6	57%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Paul Pierce	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06	0.03	0.04	0.00	13	59%	0.11	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	1	60%	-0.00	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	8	62%	0.10	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09	0.00	-0.09	-0.00	18	44%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dana Barros	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	5	50%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.04,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	27	45%	-0.08	3	-0.10	6	50%	-0.05

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rik Smits	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.05	0.02	15	76%	0.23	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.05
Dale Davis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.06	0.00	6	61%	0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	18	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	13	53%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.07
Derrick McKey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	6	70%	0.08	3	-0.13	8	62%	-0.07
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.3	25.5	15.7	24.2	2.4	38.3	130.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +18.4%

IND +29.8%

BOS -14.8%

IND +16.5%

IND +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	IND	NBA	BOS	IND	NBA
this game	14.8	15.3	15.2	101.1	103.1	101.7
season	14.7	15.4		102.4	106.5
opponent	15.1	15.1		101.8	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.7	16.0	13.6	16.3	14.8
IND	16.3	14.7	15.2	15.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	10	13	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-8	13	9.9	15.4	-5.51	16.5	15.1	1.41
Walter McCarty	11	10	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-3	3	15.9	14.7	1.22	13.4	15.5	-2.15
Adrian Griffin	48	49	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	1	-5	14.7	15.0	-0.25	14.8	15.9	-1.03
Dana Barros	27	27	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	2	-7	13.9	15.2	-1.27	14.7	15.6	-0.91
Vitaly Potapenko	38	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-3	3	14.7	14.9	-0.29	16.3	14.7	1.57
Calbert Cheaney	57	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.29	-1	-2	1	15.4	14.1	1.30	16.3	13.9	2.35
Tony Battie	55	52	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	1	-5	15.6	13.7	1.91	14.7	16.0	-1.25
Antoine Walker	83	84	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.24	-5	2	-7	15.1	12.7	2.38	15.4	15.0	0.37
Kenny Anderson	69	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.45	0	-3	3	15.1	14.1	1.04	15.1	15.8	-0.70
Paul Pierce	77	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.43	-1	-2	1	14.3	17.3	-3.02	15.2	15.7	-0.47

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Best	51	50	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.40	8	-5	13	14.3	16.5	-2.15	15.1	14.5	0.61
Jalen Rose	82	82	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	-2	7	14.9	17.8	-2.88	14.9	14.2	0.79
Reggie Miller	85	84	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.50	-2	5	-7	15.7	12.2	3.55	14.8	14.9	-0.09
Rik Smits	54	55	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	0	3	16.2	14.2	2.06	15.6	13.7	1.91
Dale Davis	79	78	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	2	-1	15.4	14.9	0.54	14.9	14.6	0.22
Sam Perkins	35	35	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	-3	9	14.6	15.7	-1.09	14.4	15.1	-0.68
Austin Croshere	22	20	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	4	-5	15.2	15.4	-0.12	13.7	15.1	-1.43
Chris Mullin	25	24	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.06	3	0	3	15.3	15.3	-0.00	14.5	14.9	-0.44
Derrick McKey	2	2	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.05	-3	6	-9	0.5	15.6	-15.14	10.0	14.9	-4.94
Mark Jackson	45	45	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.01	-5	8	-13	16.5	14.3	2.15	14.5	15.1	-0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.79,0.85,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 84, IND 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.73,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.94,1,1	93.5%
OKC 90, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.86,0.96,1	93.1%
CHI 93, DEN 101	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.65,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.72,0.97,0.98,1	92.9%