NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	9.9 [76]		MVP	Wayne Ellington (MIA): +53.9%
Toronto Raptors	89		Comeback	3.6 [277]		LVP	Norman Powell (TOR): -22.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0.54	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17,0.54	-0.01	0.55	-0.00	17	44%	0.56	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,-0.13,0.09	0.05	0.05	0.00	21	51%	0.14	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Bam Adebayo	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.22,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	14	57%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	57%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
James Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	16	39%	-0.07	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.03	-0.03	13	23%	-0.01	5	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,-0.01,0.21	0.21	-0.06	0.26	-0.01	29	40%	0.23	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Delon Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.01	9	65%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	7	64%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	10	48%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Lucas Nogueira	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzo Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.06,0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	9	40%	-0.04	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.22	-0.22	-0.05	-0.17	0.00	8	25%	-0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.0	28.4	14.8	29.5	2.3	33.3	133.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.4%

TOR -3.0%

MIA +25.2%

TOR -27.5%

MIA +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	16.1	14.8	14.7	96.8	95.7	107.5
season	15.1	14.6		105.4	112.7
opponent	14.8	14.6		105.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.1	15.6	17.1	16.7	16.1
TOR	14.9	15.7	14.8	14.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	63	63	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.42	9	-8	17	16.1	16.2	-0.15	14.8	14.8	0.01
Wayne Ellington	69	69	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.43	7	-6	13	16.3	15.7	0.51	14.0	17.1	-3.08
Goran Dragic	76	76	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.52	-3	4	-7	16.5	14.6	1.81	14.9	14.7	0.16
Josh Richardson	73	74	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.36	-2	3	-5	15.9	17.0	-1.17	15.6	12.1	3.50
Kelly Olynyk	42	41	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.44	-7	8	-15	17.5	15.0	2.50	15.2	14.6	0.64
James Johnson	28	30	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.06	9	-8	17	14.7	16.8	-2.08	14.4	15.0	-0.60
Derrick Jones Jr.	56	55	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.14	-2	3	-5	15.6	17.0	-1.45	14.9	14.8	0.04
Hassan Whiteside	58	57	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.10	-6	7	-13	16.2	16.1	0.12	14.8	14.9	-0.17

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	39	39	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.03	1	-2	3	16.1	14.0	2.09	17.1	15.5	1.59
Lucas Nogueira	32	31	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.04	2	-3	5	13.9	15.3	-1.47	15.6	16.4	-0.77
Serge Ibaka	43	41	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-1	1	15.3	14.5	0.82	16.2	16.0	0.21
Lorenzo Brown	13	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-2	3	14.2	14.9	-0.71	15.4	16.2	-0.82
Fred VanVleet	38	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-1	1	14.0	15.4	-1.42	16.3	16.0	0.32
Jakob Poeltl	16	17	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	5	-11	15.9	14.6	1.25	14.4	16.5	-2.10
CJ Miles	35	37	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	6	-13	14.3	15.2	-0.89	15.5	16.5	-1.02
Norman Powell	46	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.37	2	-3	5	14.0	15.7	-1.70	16.0	16.3	-0.35
DeMar DeRozan	67	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.47	3	-4	7	14.9	14.8	0.10	16.2	16.0	0.23
OG Anunoby	51	49	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-1	1	15.5	14.0	1.49	16.7	15.5	1.19
Delon Wright	56	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	2	-5	15.5	13.9	1.62	16.0	16.3	-0.32
Pascal Siakam	29	30	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.53	2	-3	5	14.0	15.2	-1.27	16.5	15.9	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.28,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.25,0.15,0.27,0.19,0.29,0.55,0.69,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 98, GSW 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.24,0.27,0.38,0.45,0.57,0.59,0	91.8%
ORL 94, IND 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.33,0.27,0.22,0.4,0.46,0.19,0.28,0.55,0.74,0	91.6%
CLE 106, IND 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.43,0.42,0	91.2%