NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	6.2 [611]		MVP	Kent Bazemore (ATL): +16.5%
Atlanta Hawks	110		Comeback	2.2 [432]		LVP	Wayne Ellington (MIA): -13.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.12	0.08	0.07	0.02	19	60%	0.20	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Jordan Mickey	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	7	64%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Walton Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	14	58%	0.08	4	-0.10	5	100%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	58%	0.05	3	-0.08	7	71%	-0.02
Dion Waiters	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04	0.03	-0.05	0.01	17	61%	0.08	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.04
Kelly Olynyk	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	8	32%	-0.06	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Wayne Ellington	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	6	40%	-0.03	2	-0.11	3	100%	0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kent Bazemore	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.16	0.16	0.02	0.14	-0.01	15	46%	0.16	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Taurean Prince	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.18	0.01	0.05	12	80%	0.16	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	0.00	19	55%	0.13	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Malcolm Delaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	6	69%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
John Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	64%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Miles Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre' Bembry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	3	62%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	12	43%	-0.02	1	-0.07	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	33.4	1.8	29.5	1.7	41.6	135.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +22.9%

ATL +1.1%

ATL +1.0%

ATL +25.6%

MIA -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	14.5	14.7	14.7	105.1	112.2	107.5
season	15.1	14.6		105.4	104.2
opponent	14.4	14.6		109.8	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	16.9	15.5	10.7	14.5
ATL	13.4	15.8	13.3	16.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	2	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-6	6	21.5	14.4	7.10	26.0	14.6	11.42
Derrick Walton Jr.	13	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-8	10	13.5	14.7	-1.25	16.7	14.4	2.30
Jordan Mickey	49	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-2	-2	15.2	13.9	1.30	14.4	14.9	-0.49
Bam Adebayo	61	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-5	4	15.0	13.8	1.23	14.8	14.6	0.16
Wayne Ellington	67	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-9	12	14.0	15.8	-1.83	15.2	13.5	1.77
Dion Waiters	75	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	-4	2	14.3	15.2	-0.82	14.5	15.3	-0.85
Josh Richardson	87	85	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-4	2	13.7	20.3	-6.59	14.3	17.4	-3.10
Kelly Olynyk	60	58	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.09	-12	6	-18	15.0	13.9	1.07	13.9	15.9	-2.04
Tyler Johnson	81	80	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.19	-14	8	-22	15.0	12.4	2.57	15.1	12.9	2.21

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taurean Prince	73	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.16	15	-9	24	14.5	15.3	-0.79	15.4	12.0	3.46
Kent Bazemore	67	66	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.18	13	-7	20	15.1	13.8	1.30	14.9	13.8	1.09
Dennis Schroder	71	72	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.17	13	-7	20	14.3	15.8	-1.50	15.3	12.4	2.94
Ersan Ilyasova	63	64	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.19	11	-5	16	14.4	15.2	-0.83	15.5	12.9	2.61
John Collins	36	37	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.13	4	2	2	13.5	15.4	-1.89	15.4	14.0	1.42
Miles Plumlee	47	47	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	0	6	15.1	14.3	0.87	15.1	14.1	1.03
Isaiah Taylor	16	17	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.03	5	1	4	17.8	14.1	3.73	13.9	14.7	-0.73
Malcolm Delaney	54	55	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	8	-10	14.3	15.2	-0.89	12.5	17.1	-4.58
DeAndre' Bembry	39	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.39	-14	20	-34	15.4	14.2	1.15	12.0	16.1	-4.13
Marco Belinelli	14	14	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.06	-10	16	-26	15.3	14.6	0.69	13.9	14.7	-0.80
Luke Babbitt	10	11	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.08	-11	17	-28	14.0	14.8	-0.77	11.4	14.9	-3.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.97,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 112, TOR 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.68,0.62,0.73,0.83,0.82,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.73,1	93.7%
CHI 90, MIA 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.87,0.92,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,0.93,1,1,1	93.4%
CHI 103, CHA 118	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.43,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.77,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.4%