NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	5.7 [714]		MVP	Tyler Johnson (MIA): +29.1%
San Antonio Spurs	117		Comeback	2.1 [888]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -12.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.21	0.08	0.01	12	89%	0.33	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Dion Waiters	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.02	12	85%	0.18	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0.11	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.13	-0.00	0.02	10	86%	0.15	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	3	83%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.02	5	60%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	6	64%	0.01	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	9	28%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	11	33%	-0.05	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.17	0.05	0.00	8	100%	0.26	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.07	-0.02	11	59%	0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.08	0.01	10	60%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.01	0.03	7	86%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.02	-0.04	6	59%	0.14	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	7	71%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	13	53%	0.04	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.04	0.05	16	50%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	26.4	14.4	24.5	2.5	29.3	121.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +8.1%

SAS +8.2%

SAS +13.5%

SAS +19.6%

SAS +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.0	16.9	14.7	118.0	128.6	107.5
season	15.1	15.5		105.4	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.6		104.1	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	16.1	15.5	13.4	15.0
SAS	15.9	18.0	18.8	15.4	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dion Waiters	62	63	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.20	10	-22	32	15.7	13.6	2.08	17.4	15.9	1.45
Josh Richardson	56	57	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.10	6	-18	24	15.5	14.3	1.13	17.7	15.6	2.05
Kelly Olynyk	59	61	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-11	10	15.1	15.0	0.02	17.5	15.7	1.84
Justise Winslow	40	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-4	-4	15.5	14.7	0.78	16.9	16.9	-0.02
James Johnson	46	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-9	6	14.1	16.1	-2.03	16.9	17.0	-0.04
Tyler Johnson	58	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.12	-6	-6	0	14.8	15.5	-0.67	16.7	17.4	-0.78
Bam Adebayo	33	33	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	0	-12	15.9	14.6	1.33	15.8	17.6	-1.70
Wayne Ellington	37	37	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.05	-20	8	-28	14.4	15.5	-1.14	15.7	17.8	-2.08
Goran Dragic	54	57	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	0.02	-26	14	-40	14.6	15.7	-1.15	16.8	17.2	-0.48

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Green	59	60	0.87	-0.37	1.23	-0.04	31	-19	50	16.6	17.5	-0.92	14.5	16.2	-1.77
Rudy Gay	63	62	0.66	-0.16	0.82	-0.04	24	-12	36	16.9	17.0	-0.10	14.6	16.1	-1.48
Pau Gasol	40	40	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	2	8	15.6	17.9	-2.29	14.9	15.2	-0.31
Patty Mills	49	49	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.21	2	10	-8	16.3	17.6	-1.27	16.3	13.4	2.90
Tony Parker	40	39	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.06	10	2	8	17.5	16.5	0.97	13.4	16.3	-2.86
Manu Ginobili	46	46	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.15	0	12	-12	16.5	17.4	-0.83	15.9	14.1	1.80
Bryn Forbes	52	48	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	11	-10	18.0	15.5	2.44	14.8	15.3	-0.55
LaMarcus Aldridge	60	60	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.13	0	12	-12	17.7	15.4	2.40	15.2	14.8	0.37
Dejounte Murray	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	12	-12	20.5	16.9	3.65	14.0	15.1	-1.06
Brandon Paul	12	11	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	17	-22	15.7	17.1	-1.36	15.5	15.0	0.47
Davis Bertans	32	29	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.22	-13	25	-38	17.0	16.9	0.10	16.1	14.5	1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.65,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 104, IND 114	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.86,0.88,0.96,0.98,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.2%
OKC 93, ATL 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.8%
PHI 94, IND 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%