NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	111		Excitement	7.0 [463]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +18.2%
Oklahoma City Thunder	105		Comeback	6.4 [103]		LVP	Domantas Sabonis (OKC): -14.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.04	0.01	17	73%	0.25	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Darrell Arthur	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	7	57%	0.15	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.05
Nikola Jokic	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.02	14	69%	0.20	4	-0.10	14	79%	0.02
Mason Plumlee	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	10	62%	0.12	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Malik Beasley	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	17	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	0.01	-0.01	17	26%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.04	0.00	6	93%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Semaj Christon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	75%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	11	46%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Josh Huestis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	7	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	5	60%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Abrines	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	11	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.00	-0.01	10	25%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	9	25%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	8	12%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.4	27.8	14.8	27.2	1.8	36.2	137.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +31.5%

DEN +26.0%

OKC -4.6%

OKC -5.1%

DEN +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	13.6	13.1	14.8	102.8	97.2	107.7
season	14.4	14.0		111.6	107.0
opponent	15.1	14.5		106.7	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.2	12.6	13.2	15.5	13.6
OKC	14.0	11.8	14.0	12.7	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	90	90	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.19	19	-13	32	13.4	14.6	-1.16	13.4	11.7	1.69
Mason Plumlee	72	71	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.27	8	-2	10	13.9	12.9	0.97	13.2	12.9	0.28
Nikola Jokic	93	93	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-3	12	13.2	15.8	-2.56	12.8	15.1	-2.31
Mike Miller	63	62	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.48	-4	10	-14	14.2	12.8	1.43	13.1	13.0	0.13
Jamal Murray	94	94	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.21	0	6	-6	13.3	15.5	-2.19	12.8	15.2	-2.46
Juan Hernangomez	78	79	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.09	3	3	0	13.5	13.8	-0.33	13.0	13.3	-0.32
Darrell Arthur	50	51	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.16	-5	11	-16	14.1	13.2	0.87	13.7	12.5	1.16

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Huestis	54	53	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.14	5	-11	16	13.1	13.1	-0.04	13.7	13.5	0.17
Enes Kanter	43	42	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.25	8	-14	22	13.4	12.9	0.53	14.0	13.3	0.74
Russell Westbrook	44	43	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.12	-5	-1	-4	12.7	13.3	-0.59	12.6	14.2	-1.64
Domantas Sabonis	30	33	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-4	2	13.5	12.9	0.59	13.9	13.4	0.50
Alex Abrines	42	41	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-6	6	13.2	13.0	0.19	12.9	14.0	-1.07
Steven Adams	33	32	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.12	-7	1	-8	12.7	13.2	-0.54	12.3	14.1	-1.77
Victor Oladipo	54	55	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-5	4	13.1	13.1	0.00	14.0	13.2	0.83
Jerami Grant	39	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.25	4	-10	14	12.7	13.3	-0.56	14.6	13.1	1.52
Semaj Christon	41	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-8	10	13.2	13.0	0.20	13.5	13.7	-0.21
Taj Gibson	52	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.03	-12	6	-18	13.3	12.9	0.45	12.6	14.5	-1.92
Norris Cole	31	31	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-3	0	12.7	13.2	-0.51	15.0	13.0	2.02
Nick Collison	19	19	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-3	0	12.4	13.2	-0.79	14.8	13.3	1.52
Kyle Singler	58	58	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.27	-16	10	-26	13.4	12.7	0.66	13.7	13.5	0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.8,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.62,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.17,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 113, ORL 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.47,0.29,0.19,0.22,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.0%
SAC 107, CLE 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.25,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.02,0	92.4%
DEN 117, SAC 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.42,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.04,0	92.1%