NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	89		Excitement	2.8 [1209]		MVP	Wayne Ellington (MIA): +8.3%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.1 [1084]		LVP	Fred VanVleet (TOR): -7.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	6	83%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	83%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	8	68%	-0.00	2	-0.01	3	100%	-0.00
PJ Tucker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.02	8	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
DeMar DeRozan	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	16	44%	-0.01	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	11	37%	-0.04	2	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Norman Powell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	14	41%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Fred VanVleet	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.12	-0.01	-0.06	10	22%	-0.02	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	8	61%	0.08	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.00	10	71%	0.09	5	-0.03	8	50%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	9	65%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	58%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	12	57%	0.03	1	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	8	60%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	10	46%	0.01	2	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.7	28.2	14.8	33.0	1.8	35.0	139.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.6%

MIA +8.5%

TOR -12.8%

MIA +10.7%

TOR -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	15.0	14.8	97.8	113.0	107.7
season	15.2	15.4		110.0	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.9		105.9	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	21.0	17.0	14.5	14.0	16.5
MIA	15.0	12.5	15.5	17.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pascal Siakam	17	17	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.15	5	-20	25	14.8	16.8	-2.07	16.9	14.6	2.34
Jakob Poeltl	35	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.17	3	-18	21	15.3	17.2	-1.89	16.8	13.9	2.87
Delon Wright	49	49	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.16	2	-17	19	14.7	18.5	-3.89	16.2	13.7	2.59
PJ Tucker	25	26	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	-9	3	16.3	16.5	-0.24	15.8	14.7	1.03
Patrick Patterson	36	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-11	7	14.9	17.5	-2.63	15.1	15.0	0.13
Fred VanVleet	40	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-16	17	14.5	18.0	-3.48	16.0	14.3	1.67
Cory Joseph	41	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.09	-13	-2	-11	18.3	15.0	3.31	14.1	15.8	-1.64
DeMar DeRozan	52	53	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.03	-12	-3	-9	18.1	14.3	3.84	14.6	15.7	-1.10
Serge Ibaka	52	53	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.10	-16	1	-17	17.5	15.1	2.45	14.6	15.6	-0.92
Jonas Valanciunas	41	41	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.13	-18	3	-21	18.1	15.1	3.09	13.0	16.7	-3.67
Norman Powell	67	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.02	-17	2	-19	16.6	15.9	0.73	14.3	17.0	-2.72

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	65	64	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.11	18	-3	21	14.3	16.8	-2.52	16.5	16.3	0.22
Luke Babbitt	35	36	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.12	8	7	1	14.0	15.7	-1.67	19.8	14.2	5.60
Goran Dragic	35	33	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.06	14	1	13	12.7	16.5	-3.79	18.5	15.3	3.29
Josh Richardson	43	43	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.14	6	9	-3	14.3	15.7	-1.37	16.6	16.4	0.20
Dion Waiters	62	60	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	9	-3	15.3	14.5	0.74	17.5	14.3	3.23
Wayne Ellington	36	37	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.20	1	14	-13	14.9	15.1	-0.19	15.2	17.3	-2.13
Rodney McGruder	49	48	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.08	9	6	3	15.7	14.3	1.37	16.4	16.6	-0.20
Tyler Johnson	51	52	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.11	9	6	3	16.4	13.3	3.14	14.7	18.7	-3.97
James Johnson	57	55	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.06	7	8	-1	15.7	14.0	1.67	14.2	19.8	-5.60
Willie Reed	27	27	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	18	-21	16.8	14.3	2.52	16.3	16.5	-0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 101, DEN 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1	97.6%
PHX 101, SAC 133	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
PHI 73, MIA 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%