NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	4.9 [852]		MVP	Wayne Ellington (MIA): +22.3%
Cleveland Cavaliers	98		Comeback	1.2 [303]		LVP	Kyle Korver (CLE): -11.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.05	-0.04	12	72%	0.22	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	-0.02	-0.00	24	60%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	9	61%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	5	40%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	42%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.01	10	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.01	17	57%	0.05	4	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Luke Babbitt	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Okaro White	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.01	25	56%	0.16	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	80%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Andrew Bogut	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0	-0.00	0.05	0.00	0.06	22	56%	0.04	3	-0.04	10	60%	-0.04
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	3	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	7	29%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.8	34.2	15.4	26.4	2.5	28.3	130.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +32.7%

MIA +7.8%

CLE -11.1%

MIA +19.5%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	16.2	13.8	14.8	109.3	103.2	107.7
season	15.4	14.9		106.7	113.5
opponent	14.7	14.5		109.6	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	13.6	18.2	19.0	16.2
CLE	14.3	15.3	13.1	12.3	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	64	62	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.26	11	-3	14	15.8	16.8	-1.02	13.9	13.5	0.39
Wayne Ellington	65	63	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-3	14	15.7	17.2	-1.51	13.8	13.9	-0.11
Dion Waiters	72	70	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.17	4	4	0	16.4	15.6	0.72	13.4	14.8	-1.36
Willie Reed	22	23	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	-3	14	15.0	16.5	-1.52	14.8	13.5	1.30
Hassan Whiteside	75	72	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	11	-14	16.5	15.0	1.52	13.5	14.8	-1.30
Okaro White	43	42	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	4	0	17.0	15.6	1.40	14.6	13.2	1.38
Rodney McGruder	57	56	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	4	0	16.1	16.2	-0.08	13.8	13.7	0.10
Goran Dragic	68	68	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.21	-2	10	-12	16.6	15.1	1.53	13.5	14.6	-1.16
Luke Babbitt	19	19	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	8	-8	15.1	16.4	-1.40	14.2	13.7	0.45

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	77	78	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.37	14	-22	36	13.7	14.2	-0.45	16.7	14.0	2.71
DeAndre Liggins	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-8	8	0.0	13.8	-13.80	8.0	16.3	-8.26
Andrew Bogut	1	2	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-6	4	14.0	13.8	0.20	20.5	16.1	4.42
Iman Shumpert	54	51	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-3	-2	13.8	13.8	-0.01	16.5	15.8	0.66
Deron Williams	33	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.25	3	-11	14	13.5	13.9	-0.39	16.9	15.8	1.04
Richard Jefferson	56	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.24	0	-8	8	13.2	14.7	-1.51	16.4	15.8	0.68
Tristan Thompson	69	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-9	10	13.7	14.0	-0.33	16.5	15.2	1.28
Channing Frye	30	28	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.16	-15	7	-22	14.6	13.4	1.17	13.1	17.4	-4.36
Kyrie Irving	78	80	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-6	4	13.4	15.6	-2.25	16.5	14.6	1.92
Kyle Korver	39	41	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.02	-18	10	-28	14.6	13.2	1.43	15.0	17.1	-2.08
Derrick Williams	38	38	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.08	-16	8	-24	14.6	13.3	1.34	15.9	16.4	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.29,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.29,0.31,0.21,0.14,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 100, NYK 83	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
IND 112, MIN 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.24,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0	94.5%
MIA 91, DET 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.42,0.32,0.24,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	94.3%