NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	97		Excitement	6.9 [466]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +28.6%
Toronto Raptors	107		Comeback	7.8 [257]		LVP	Norman Powell (TOR): -9.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jae Crowder	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.24	0.13	0.11	-0.01	12	68%	0.24	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jaylen Brown	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	8	76%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	15	51%	0.09	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.01
Al Horford	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	67%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
James Young	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Mickey	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Demetrius Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jonas Jerebko	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	0.00	-0.06	0.01	17	50%	0.08	3	-0.14	6	83%	-0.03
Amir Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.03,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.27,0.29	0.29	0.17	0.16	0.05	28	63%	0.35	3	-0.07	12	100%	0.04
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.10	-0.00	4	60%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	6	79%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	12	62%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.08	-0.00	12	42%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	64%	0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	5	56%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Lucas Nogueira	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	5	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	3.5	36.4	16.5	30.2	2.7	39.0	152.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +17.9%

BOS -5.9%

TOR +23.4%

TOR +14.5%

TOR +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	TOR	NBA	BOS	TOR	NBA
this game	15.7	15.6	14.8	104.3	117.6	107.7
season	14.7	15.2		110.1	110.0
opponent	14.9	14.9		106.9	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.2	17.5	15.9	16.4	15.7
TOR	16.3	15.9	15.4	14.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	39	36	0.37	-0.87	1.25	0.14	8	-18	26	15.8	15.6	0.26	16.0	15.4	0.60
Jonas Jerebko	38	39	0.36	-0.86	1.21	0.09	9	-19	28	16.5	15.1	1.41	14.6	16.4	-1.74
Terry Rozier	34	34	0.30	-0.80	1.10	0.07	8	-18	26	15.8	15.6	0.15	14.6	16.3	-1.72
Jaylen Brown	56	54	0.17	-0.67	0.85	0.09	3	-13	16	15.1	16.6	-1.54	15.5	15.9	-0.43
Jordan Mickey	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-10	10	11.0	15.7	-4.72	0.0	15.6	-15.64
Demetrius Jackson	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-10	10	11.0	15.7	-4.72	0.0	15.6	-15.64
Kelly Olynyk	31	33	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-7	4	15.0	16.0	-0.95	15.1	16.0	-0.90
James Young	24	22	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-6	2	16.3	15.4	0.84	13.7	16.2	-2.52
Marcus Smart	61	63	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.09	-15	5	-20	15.8	15.5	0.25	15.0	17.2	-2.23
Jae Crowder	59	56	-0.84	0.34	-1.17	-0.31	-18	8	-26	15.5	15.9	-0.39	16.6	14.2	2.38
Isaiah Thomas	65	65	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.28	-19	9	-28	16.1	14.7	1.36	16.3	14.0	2.35
Al Horford	56	53	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.37	-19	9	-28	15.4	16.1	-0.73	17.2	13.5	3.67

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Joseph	65	69	0.97	-0.47	1.45	0.36	21	-11	32	16.1	14.4	1.70	16.1	14.3	1.80
Serge Ibaka	66	69	0.93	-0.43	1.35	0.49	15	-5	20	16.1	14.5	1.60	15.9	15.1	0.79
DeMarre Carroll	49	52	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.31	17	-7	24	16.8	14.2	2.60	15.8	15.4	0.41
DeMar DeRozan	70	73	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.20	15	-5	20	15.8	15.0	0.77	15.1	17.9	-2.85
PJ Tucker	58	58	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.19	9	1	8	14.4	17.8	-3.37	15.7	15.6	0.11
Jonas Valanciunas	30	33	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.08	5	5	0	17.0	15.0	2.03	16.8	15.0	1.78
Norman Powell	30	30	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.10	1	9	-8	15.5	15.7	-0.16	17.7	14.7	3.05
Patrick Patterson	36	34	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.05	-8	18	-26	14.5	16.4	-1.88	14.8	16.2	-1.38
Delon Wright	26	24	-0.47	0.97	-1.45	-0.15	-11	21	-32	14.4	16.1	-1.70	14.3	16.1	-1.80
Lucas Nogueira	25	23	-0.52	1.02	-1.55	-0.11	-14	24	-38	14.6	16.0	-1.43	13.4	16.4	-2.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.38,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.72,0.91,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 77, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.26,0.35,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.78,0.8,0.99,1	91.0%
ORL 108, CHA 114	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.78,0.96,1	90.7%
TOR 98, WAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.36,0.48,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.38,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.3,0.46,0.52,0.31,0.72,0.64,0.95,1	90.4%