NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	123		Excitement	5.3 [765]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): +21.3%
Phoenix Suns	112		Comeback	3.9 [180]		LVP	TJ Warren (PHX): -11.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.25	0.02	0.05	14	82%	0.23	1	-0.01	11	100%	0.05
Kenneth Faried	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.03	0.01	9	72%	0.17	0	0.00	11	82%	0.03
Jamal Murray	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.00	-0.01	10	78%	0.15	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	9	65%	0.12	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Gary Harris	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	15	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	4	37%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	5	46%	0.02	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	56%	0.03	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	10	27%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.06	0.04	27	59%	0.21	3	-0.04	15	93%	0.03
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.01	0.03	8	75%	0.10	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Alex Len	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	6	75%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Booker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.03	16	53%	0.07	3	-0.08	11	64%	-0.01
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.07	10	60%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquese Chriss	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	8	12%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
TJ Warren	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	10	30%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	32.3	15.7	32.2	1.8	34.0	142.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +24.0%

DEN +22.5%

DEN +1.6%

PHX -0.1%

DEN +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHX	NBA	DEN	PHX	NBA
this game	14.7	13.4	14.8	120.6	108.7	107.7
season	14.4	13.9		111.6	105.4
opponent	14.5	14.5		110.3	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.9	14.2	13.1	16.7	14.7
PHX	13.9	13.0	14.6	12.1	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenneth Faried	79	80	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.04	21	-10	31	14.3	16.0	-1.64	13.5	13.2	0.31
Danilo Gallinari	78	80	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.16	10	1	9	14.8	14.2	0.57	13.6	12.7	0.87
Gary Harris	77	78	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.10	12	-1	13	14.4	15.6	-1.16	13.3	13.9	-0.66
Jameer Nelson	70	70	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.28	3	8	-5	15.0	14.0	0.95	13.3	13.7	-0.41
Jusuf Nurkic	34	34	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	3	5	13.0	15.5	-2.53	15.1	12.6	2.58
Jamal Murray	49	51	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	0	11	15.0	14.4	0.60	13.0	13.8	-0.75
Wilson Chandler	49	50	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.09	-1	12	-13	15.2	14.2	0.96	12.2	14.6	-2.40
Will Barton	43	43	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	12	-13	14.9	14.5	0.42	13.3	13.5	-0.24
Darrell Arthur	31	29	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.15	-8	19	-27	15.5	14.3	1.24	14.4	13.0	1.39

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Booker	73	74	0.20	-0.70	0.89	-0.36	19	-30	49	12.7	15.1	-2.37	15.9	11.4	4.49
Leandro Barbosa	33	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.23	6	-17	23	11.8	14.2	-2.40	16.5	13.8	2.76
Alex Len	18	18	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-6	1	12.9	13.5	-0.57	13.9	14.9	-0.97
Jared Dudley	18	15	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.08	-7	-4	-3	12.7	13.6	-0.91	12.5	15.1	-2.52
Marquese Chriss	35	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-9	7	15.2	12.5	2.66	13.6	15.3	-1.75
TJ Warren	40	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.01	-6	-5	-1	14.9	12.5	2.42	14.9	14.6	0.32
Tyson Chandler	85	84	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	-5	-1	13.5	12.9	0.57	14.9	13.9	0.97
Eric Bledsoe	95	95	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.22	-9	-2	-7	13.6	10.9	2.76	14.8	13.1	1.66
PJ Tucker	80	78	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.13	-13	2	-15	12.7	15.7	-2.99	14.7	14.6	0.13
Brandon Knight	38	35	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	0.23	-32	21	-53	14.2	13.0	1.26	11.8	16.2	-4.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.63,0.57,0.52,0.39,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 103, ORL 89	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.25,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.0%
PHX 110, POR 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%
PHX 109, WAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.59,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%