NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	119		Excitement	6.3 [594]		MVP	Ian Clark (GSW): +14.6%
Golden State Warriors	127		Comeback	1.3 [1263]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -21.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jusuf Nurkic	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	8	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Wilson Chandler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.09,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	16	60%	0.12	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Will Barton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	11	64%	0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.05	15	56%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	11	36%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	4	56%	0.06	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	12	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	-0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21	0.04	-0.12	0.13	17	55%	-0.15	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ian Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.01	-0.02	5	100%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.03	0.05	19	61%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	-0.00	4	82%	0.10	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.01	19	55%	0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	46%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Stephen Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	18	56%	0.08	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	8	58%	0.02	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	8	68%	0.01	5	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.6	26.9	14.8	25.4	2.3	29.5	125.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +49.5%

GSW +5.7%

DEN -22.2%

GSW +16.2%

GSW +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	14.2	13.2	14.8	113.3	119.8	107.7
season	14.4	13.5		111.6	114.9
opponent	15.1	14.5		103.3	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.4	14.0	15.8	13.6	14.2
GSW	12.8	13.2	13.0	13.6	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	60	59	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.15	4	-12	16	13.9	14.5	-0.63	13.0	13.4	-0.42
Jameer Nelson	38	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.14	0	-8	8	13.7	14.4	-0.77	13.7	12.8	0.86
Jamal Murray	42	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-4	0	14.2	14.1	0.02	14.0	12.6	1.38
Jusuf Nurkic	47	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-4	0	14.2	14.1	0.03	13.9	12.6	1.27
Nikola Jokic	52	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.20	-5	-3	-2	14.2	14.2	0.00	13.0	13.3	-0.31
Emmanuel Mudiay	67	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.13	-8	0	-8	14.4	13.7	0.77	12.8	13.7	-0.86
Wilson Chandler	81	82	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-4	0	14.1	14.2	-0.02	13.5	11.9	1.65
Danilo Gallinari	70	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.15	-9	1	-10	14.3	13.9	0.40	12.6	14.3	-1.69
Gary Harris	68	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	2	-12	14.2	14.0	0.24	12.6	14.2	-1.66

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Draymond Green	79	78	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	-3	14	12.6	14.9	-2.28	14.6	12.7	1.90
Klay Thompson	81	80	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.26	7	1	6	13.6	11.8	1.77	14.4	13.4	0.99
Zaza Pachulia	39	40	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.08	17	-9	26	13.4	13.0	0.37	15.6	13.2	2.42
Stephen Curry	79	77	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.20	7	1	6	12.5	15.1	-2.68	14.4	13.6	0.74
Shaun Livingston	39	38	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.04	9	-1	10	14.1	12.6	1.51	14.4	14.0	0.42
Kevin Durant	78	78	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.34	-4	12	-16	13.6	12.0	1.56	13.5	16.1	-2.64
Ian Clark	33	34	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	3	2	13.2	13.1	0.04	14.2	14.1	0.04
David West	29	28	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	10	-12	14.6	12.6	2.02	13.1	14.5	-1.38
Andre Iguodala	52	52	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.35	-10	18	-28	12.5	13.8	-1.32	13.2	15.1	-1.94
JaVale McGee	21	20	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	8	-8	12.1	13.4	-1.26	13.6	14.3	-0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.89,0.81,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 73, CHH 89	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%
DAL 80, SAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.72,0.86,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
MIL 76, IND 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%