NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	109		Excitement	9.2 [137]		MVP	Paul Millsap (ATL): +25.2%
Denver Nuggets	108		Comeback	84.5 [17]		LVP	Wilson Chandler (DEN): -27.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0.25	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,0.25	0.03	0.23	0.01	15	50%	0.27	1	-0.01	10	80%	0.12
Thabo Sefolosha	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2	0.07	0.12	-0.01	8	67%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.11
Mike Muscala	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.09	0.00	7	76%	0.20	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
DeAndre' Bembry	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.09	0.00	6	69%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mike Scott	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	4	42%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Malcolm Delaney	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	44%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Taurean Prince	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kris Humphries	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	45%	-0.04	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dennis Schroder	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.08,0.1,-0.04	0.08	-0.09	0.03	19	60%	0.05	3	-0.09	7	100%	0.05
Kent Bazemore	-0.24	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.11	-0.12	0.00	9	25%	-0.16	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	10	70%	0.26	3	-0.09	10	90%	0.06
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.07	-0.02	9	52%	0.12	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.07	0.00	6	57%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.04	-0.03	12	44%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	62%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.14,-0.07	-0.07	0.06	-0.11	0.02	8	65%	0.16	2	-0.23	10	100%	0.07
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	4	80%	0.04	5	-0.18	2	50%	-0.03
Wilson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.28	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	0.02	17	51%	-0.28	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.3	30.6	15.6	27.2	1.7	43.2	144.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -27.5%

ATL +42.3%

DEN -7.2%

ATL +44.8%

DEN -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DEN	NBA	ATL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.6	13.6	14.8	111.2	109.1	107.7
season	14.4	14.4		104.2	111.6
opponent	14.5	14.9		111.2	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.3	17.0	18.1	14.6	15.6
DEN	13.8	13.7	14.0	13.1	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dennis Schroder	76	76	0.97	-0.47	1.44	0.56	14	-13	27	14.7	18.8	-4.15	13.5	14.2	-0.69
Mike Muscala	47	45	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.60	9	-8	17	14.8	16.3	-1.48	13.6	13.7	-0.04
Thabo Sefolosha	62	62	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.60	9	-8	17	14.4	17.7	-3.35	13.6	13.7	-0.13
Paul Millsap	77	78	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	2	-3	15.7	15.1	0.65	13.2	15.1	-1.90
Malcolm Delaney	61	60	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.23	4	-3	7	15.8	15.2	0.62	14.3	12.6	1.66
Mike Scott	24	23	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.07	8	-7	15	14.8	15.9	-1.07	14.7	13.3	1.31
Taurean Prince	3	2	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	2	-3	10.7	15.8	-5.09	11.0	13.7	-2.70
Kris Humphries	42	46	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.04	-9	10	-19	17.1	14.5	2.57	13.9	13.4	0.50
Kent Bazemore	62	65	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.05	-15	16	-31	16.6	13.9	2.66	13.2	14.4	-1.17
DeAndre' Bembry	36	38	-0.54	1.04	-1.58	-0.16	-13	14	-27	17.6	14.5	3.09	13.8	13.6	0.19

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	68	64	0.29	-0.79	1.09	0.09	7	-8	15	14.0	12.9	1.04	16.5	13.9	2.63
Jamal Murray	34	31	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.01	9	-10	19	14.5	13.2	1.30	17.8	14.6	3.18
Nikola Jokic	42	41	0.26	-0.76	1.02	0.05	7	-8	15	13.5	13.8	-0.30	13.6	17.1	-3.51
Jameer Nelson	40	39	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.03	6	-7	13	14.1	13.3	0.84	16.6	14.9	1.64
Juan Hernangomez	1	1	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	2	-5	2.0	13.8	-11.77	7.0	15.7	-8.69
Kenneth Faried	39	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	2	-5	14.6	13.0	1.51	16.9	14.7	2.28
Darrell Arthur	23	23	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.49	-3	2	-5	12.7	13.9	-1.30	15.8	15.5	0.24
Wilson Chandler	57	59	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.49	-4	3	-7	13.0	14.5	-1.44	14.7	16.9	-2.19
Will Barton	69	68	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.49	-5	4	-9	13.8	13.2	0.64	15.8	15.1	0.68
Emmanuel Mudiay	59	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.44	-7	6	-13	13.3	14.1	-0.84	14.9	16.6	-1.64
Gary Harris	63	65	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.50	-9	8	-17	13.3	14.3	-1.04	14.8	17.2	-2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.77,0.89,0.89,0.94,0.96,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 105, TOR 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.59,0.71,0.77,0.77,0.88,0.98,0.98,0	92.0%
SAC 89, CHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.63,0.66,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.6,0.71,0.63,0.41,0.54,0.67,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.91,0	90.0%
CLE 108, NJN 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.63,0.74,0.77,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.67,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.76,0.92,0	89.9%