NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	98		Excitement	8.2 [234]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +26.3%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	2.1 [454]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -16.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.26	0.06	0.21	0.01	11	62%	0.32	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.02
Nikola Mirotic	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	7	62%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Doug McDermott	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	11	57%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Bobby Portis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	14	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.02
Taj Gibson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Canaan	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	20	40%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	17	35%	-0.05	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.05	0.03	13	62%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	-0.00	12	62%	0.15	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	18	50%	0.07	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	62%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.01	11	48%	-0.01	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.06
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.14	0.00	15	47%	-0.07	2	-0.10	4	50%	-0.04
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	0.00	9	33%	-0.05	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	3.5	30.3	16.0	28.3	3.4	38.5	143.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +15.1%

CHI +18.9%

CHI +6.1%

CHI +8.1%

CHI +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.8	15.5	14.8	106.5	103.3	107.7
season	15.1	15.4		105.9	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.8		105.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.7	15.3	16.6	15.6	15.8
MIA	16.3	15.4	14.1	16.4	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	70	70	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.39	6	-3	9	15.8	15.9	-0.15	15.8	14.6	1.21
Nikola Mirotic	40	41	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.21	10	-7	17	15.8	15.8	-0.03	16.6	14.6	1.94
Doug McDermott	58	59	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.34	5	-2	7	16.6	14.4	2.28	15.8	15.0	0.80
Dwyane Wade	65	62	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.28	7	-4	11	14.5	18.9	-4.38	15.8	14.9	0.86
Jimmy Butler	71	73	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	4	-5	16.5	13.6	2.88	15.1	17.0	-1.88
Bobby Portis	20	19	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.05	7	-4	11	13.3	16.5	-3.12	16.8	15.2	1.61
Robin Lopez	70	71	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.31	-3	6	-9	16.9	12.1	4.81	15.4	15.8	-0.39
Taj Gibson	46	46	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.07	-8	11	-19	15.3	16.2	-0.89	14.5	16.5	-2.07
Isaiah Canaan	20	19	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.07	-8	11	-19	14.8	16.1	-1.27	13.4	16.1	-2.70

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Babbitt	30	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	2	-7	16.2	15.2	1.02	15.0	16.2	-1.13
Goran Dragic	42	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	2	-7	15.5	15.5	0.07	16.0	15.6	0.38
James Johnson	41	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	2	-7	15.5	15.5	-0.04	15.4	16.1	-0.75
Willie Reed	20	22	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	1	-5	16.2	15.3	0.88	14.0	16.4	-2.42
Hassan Whiteside	71	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.37	5	-8	13	15.5	15.7	-0.20	16.6	13.3	3.26
Josh Richardson	55	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.42	1	-4	5	15.1	16.1	-0.95	15.7	15.9	-0.16
Dion Waiters	70	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.28	-4	1	-5	15.4	16.0	-0.64	15.7	16.0	-0.27
Tyler Johnson	60	61	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-4	5	15.3	15.9	-0.65	15.9	15.5	0.42
Justise Winslow	71	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.50	1	-4	5	15.7	14.9	0.85	16.0	15.0	0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.56,0.5,0.62,0.43,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.46,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 91, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.47,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.04,0	91.8%
SAC 98, TOR 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.01,0	91.7%
CHI 93, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.41,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.25,0.28,0.16,0.28,0	91.7%