NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	98		Excitement	7.0 [337]		MVP	Isaiah Thomas (SAC): +17.5%
Toronto Raptors	91		Comeback	2.1 [293]		LVP	JJ Hickson (SAC): -18.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Thomas	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.08	0.01	12	69%	0.26	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.02
DeMarcus Cousins	0.12	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.08	-0.02	11	64%	0.23	5	-0.11	11	82%	0.02
Donte Greene	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	43%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tyreke Evans	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.06	0.03	0.09	22	50%	0.05	1	-0.05	14	100%	0.03
Jason Thompson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	10	45%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.04	0.00	10	30%	-0.06	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	7	64%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.00	0.03	18	67%	0.11	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	4	75%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	59%	0.09	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jose Calderon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	0.04	12	52%	-0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	0.04	9	62%	0.00	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	5	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	37%	-0.00	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.04	0.01	13	31%	-0.11	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	1.7	27.0	16.4	25.4	2.5	43.4	143.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +20.0%

SAC +11.6%

SAC +22.3%

TOR -2.7%

TOR -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	TOR	NBA	SAC	TOR	NBA
this game	14.8	14.9	15.6	102.1	92.9	102.8
season	14.9	16.5		102.2	98.9
opponent	15.2	15.1		102.9	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.1	14.0	16.3	12.9	14.8
TOR	16.6	16.0	15.0	12.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Thomas	50	51	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.32	10	-3	13	13.9	15.7	-1.86	13.8	16.2	-2.37
DeMarcus Cousins	76	79	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-4	15	15.1	13.6	1.45	15.1	14.2	0.97
Francisco Garcia	37	38	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.28	10	-3	13	13.8	15.4	-1.57	13.9	15.6	-1.71
Tyreke Evans	92	94	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.32	8	-1	9	14.7	15.5	-0.78	14.9	16.5	-1.63
Donte Greene	54	54	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.32	-1	8	-9	14.1	15.6	-1.59	13.8	16.3	-2.46
JJ Hickson	48	49	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.01	7	0	7	15.0	14.5	0.54	16.3	13.6	2.65
Jason Thompson	13	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	10	-13	15.8	14.6	1.27	15.4	14.9	0.54
John Salmons	57	59	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	9	-11	15.8	13.2	2.60	15.7	13.8	1.81
Jimmer Fredette	53	54	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.02	-5	12	-17	14.9	14.5	0.43	15.6	14.1	1.46

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrea Bargnani	53	53	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-5	3	16.5	13.1	3.34	15.8	13.5	2.29
Jamaal Magloire	8	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	-1	-5	18.6	14.6	4.01	20.4	14.3	6.13
Linas Kleiza	34	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.14	-1	-6	5	13.7	15.6	-1.93	12.8	15.7	-2.91
Anthony Carter	30	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-5	3	14.8	15.0	-0.20	14.6	14.8	-0.25
Rasual Butler	27	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	-1	-5	14.7	15.0	-0.32	15.3	14.5	0.76
Ed Davis	29	29	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-5	3	15.4	14.7	0.72	13.6	15.3	-1.72
Amir Johnson	55	56	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-7	7	15.2	14.6	0.68	15.6	13.6	2.01
DeMar DeRozan	60	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-1	-5	14.8	15.1	-0.31	14.7	14.9	-0.19
Jose Calderon	69	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-2	-3	14.8	15.3	-0.53	14.8	14.6	0.25
James Johnson	64	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-7	7	14.5	15.8	-1.35	14.7	14.9	-0.16
Leandro Barbosa	61	59	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.36	-5	-2	-3	14.3	16.0	-1.75	13.9	16.1	-2.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 110, NYK 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.35,0.48,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.27,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	93.3%
DAL 81, IND 73	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	92.9%
NYK 107, TOR 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.1,0.07,0.02,0,0	92.7%