NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	116		Excitement	4.7 [883]		MVP	D.J. Augustin (DEN): +17.3%
Los Angeles Lakers	105		Comeback	2.1 [693]		LVP	D'Angelo Russell (LAL): -9.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.04	0.02	9	83%	0.17	1	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Will Barton	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	12	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Axel Toupane	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.02	5	80%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.00	11	64%	0.12	3	-0.06	6	67%	0.01
JaKarr Sampson	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	55%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	13	48%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Joffrey Lauvergne	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	10	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	45%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	9	44%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	8	22%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.00	-0.01	8	64%	0.13	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.11	-0.01	0.05	22	57%	0.07	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	6	47%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.11	-0.03	0.06	16	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.02	5	62%	0.05	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	10	59%	-0.00	2	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Marcelo Huertas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	29.4	15.4	25.5	2.5	30.8	130.4
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +38.2%

LAL -5.5%

DEN +10.9%

DEN +7.1%

LAL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	15.3	14.4	14.9	119.6	108.2	105.1
season	14.9	15.2		104.3	100.1
opponent	14.5	14.9		109.9	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.6	15.7	16.1	15.9	15.3
LAL	14.6	15.6	13.2	14.1	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Axel Toupane	43	44	0.68	-0.18	0.85	-0.09	26	-15	41	15.6	15.1	0.54	15.7	13.2	2.50
D.J. Augustin	52	52	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.05	18	-7	25	15.9	14.7	1.24	14.6	14.1	0.42
Will Barton	54	53	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.06	17	-6	23	16.2	14.2	2.01	14.6	14.1	0.54
Jusuf Nurkic	51	52	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.04	13	-2	15	15.7	14.9	0.88	14.6	14.1	0.55
Joffrey Lauvergne	49	47	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.09	11	0	11	16.2	14.4	1.81	14.6	14.2	0.37
Darrell Arthur	48	50	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.08	0	11	-11	14.4	16.2	-1.81	14.2	14.6	-0.37
Nikola Jokic	46	45	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.14	-2	13	-15	14.9	15.7	-0.88	14.1	14.6	-0.55
Emmanuel Mudiay	45	45	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.12	-7	18	-25	14.7	15.9	-1.24	14.1	14.6	-0.42
Gary Harris	51	50	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.22	-11	22	-33	14.8	15.9	-1.15	13.5	15.3	-1.82
JaKarr Sampson	46	47	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.16	-10	21	-31	14.6	16.0	-1.37	13.7	14.9	-1.20

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lou Williams	60	62	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.25	8	-19	27	13.2	16.2	-2.91	16.0	14.2	1.81
Julius Randle	70	70	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.19	2	-13	15	13.5	16.7	-3.25	15.2	15.8	-0.62
Marcelo Huertas	35	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-8	5	16.1	13.4	2.74	16.4	14.7	1.72
Brandon Bass	54	54	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.16	0	-11	11	14.4	14.3	0.15	16.0	14.4	1.60
Metta World Peace	27	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-9	7	15.8	13.8	2.01	16.3	14.9	1.34
D'Angelo Russell	26	25	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.06	-10	-1	-9	15.2	14.1	1.08	13.8	15.9	-2.12
Kobe Bryant	59	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.11	-6	-5	-1	13.7	15.4	-1.66	15.2	15.5	-0.32
Roy Hibbert	43	43	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	-11	0	-11	14.3	14.4	-0.15	14.4	16.0	-1.60
Larry Nance Jr.	38	37	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.07	-16	5	-21	16.0	13.3	2.69	15.1	15.4	-0.31
Jordan Clarkson	73	72	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.10	-17	6	-23	14.2	15.0	-0.85	14.8	16.9	-2.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.17,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 102, SAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.29,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.08,0.06,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.4%
CLE 121, WAS 115	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.39,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.24,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.0%
GSW 127, TOR 121	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.44,0.36,0.28,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.07,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0	92.9%