NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	104		Excitement	5.4 [753]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): +30.0%
San Antonio Spurs	110		Comeback	1.1 [1283]		LVP	Ray McCallum (MEM): -15.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.01	10	65%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	15	55%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jarell Martin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
JaMychal Green	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	18	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	56%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Matt Barnes	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	10	64%	0.10	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Xavier Munford	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.01	6	71%	0.05	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Farmar	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.01	0.08	7	69%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Ray McCallum	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.11	-0.01	10	35%	-0.09	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.23	0.07	-0.00	16	78%	0.32	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.02
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.04	0.10	-0.01	5	80%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	7	93%	0.13	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	8	71%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boban Marjanovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	13	46%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.09	-0.03	11	54%	0.03	5	-0.15	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.3	28.9	14.8	23.1	2.4	32.6	127.4
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +34.1%

SAS +13.0%

SAS +6.6%

MEM -3.2%

MEM -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAS	NBA	MEM	SAS	NBA
this game	14.5	17.3	14.9	115.6	120.9	105.1
season	15.7	15.7		103.4	109.0
opponent	14.7	14.8		97.9	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.7	13.6	14.8	14.1	14.5
SAS	15.0	17.1	19.5	17.8	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarell Martin	27	28	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-3	0	16.9	13.5	3.33	16.9	17.5	-0.57
Xavier Munford	15	14	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.01	-2	-4	2	13.3	14.8	-1.51	15.3	17.6	-2.36
Ray McCallum	36	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.11	0	-6	6	16.8	13.0	3.81	17.7	17.0	0.66
Ryan Hollins	22	23	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.11	-1	-5	4	17.2	13.6	3.58	17.1	17.3	-0.21
JaMychal Green	48	49	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-4	2	13.2	16.0	-2.82	18.2	16.2	2.08
Matt Barnes	65	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.32	3	-9	12	13.0	18.4	-5.42	18.2	14.6	3.64
Vince Carter	25	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	4	-14	17.8	13.3	4.48	14.7	18.2	-3.47
Chris Andersen	70	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-2	-2	13.9	16.8	-2.99	17.3	17.1	0.20
Jordan Farmar	45	46	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	0	-6	13.1	15.9	-2.82	17.4	17.2	0.21
Tony Allen	47	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.21	-5	-1	-4	13.3	15.8	-2.52	16.7	17.9	-1.21
Lance Stephenson	50	51	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-6	6	15.7	13.0	2.74	17.2	17.3	-0.11

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	62	63	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.02	17	-11	28	17.0	17.9	-0.90	14.2	15.2	-0.95
Kevin Martin	63	63	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.13	11	-5	16	17.6	16.7	0.88	14.5	14.5	0.06
Tony Parker	63	64	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	-5	16	17.6	16.6	0.98	14.7	14.2	0.46
Manu Ginobili	47	44	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	3	0	16.9	17.7	-0.81	13.7	15.3	-1.69
Kyle Anderson	47	49	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.17	1	5	-4	16.3	18.3	-2.00	14.8	14.2	0.51
Jonathon Simmons	36	35	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.30	-4	10	-14	18.3	16.6	1.73	14.2	14.7	-0.57
Andre Miller	28	27	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.04	5	1	4	16.2	17.7	-1.50	16.7	13.6	3.12
David West	40	40	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	5	-4	16.5	17.9	-1.36	16.5	13.0	3.51
Tim Duncan	57	55	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	7	-8	18.9	14.5	4.45	14.4	14.7	-0.31
Matt Bonner	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	13	-20	15.0	17.4	-2.45	6.2	15.0	-8.81
Boban Marjanovic	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	13	-20	15.0	17.4	-2.45	6.2	15.0	-8.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.8,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.79,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.9,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 99, DEN 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.86,0.81,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.91,1	93.3%
PHX 95, MIN 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.65,0.82,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.85,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.87,0.92,1,1,1,1	93.0%
MIA 99, PHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.99,1	93.0%