NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	125		Excitement	6.3 [561]		MVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): +22.3%
Philadelphia 76ers	111		Comeback	3.0 [838]		LVP	Hollis Thompson (PHI): -9.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0.22	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.17	0.07	0.02	11	86%	0.25	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.03
Tobias Harris	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.11	0.08	0.01	12	78%	0.24	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.01	0.09	-0.03	21	49%	0.18	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Reggie Bullock	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	7	57%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.03	15	59%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.03	12	68%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Aron Baynes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	5	40%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nik Stauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.08	0.01	10	62%	0.17	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Isaiah Canaan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.16	0.02	0.06	8	88%	0.22	3	-0.10	9	89%	0.01
Carl Landry	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.05	0.02	13	60%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Kendall Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.00	5	70%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	14	53%	0.07	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	9	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	55%	0.03	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.00
TJ McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hollis Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	7	21%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	28.4	19.4	25.3	2.4	34.6	136.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +37.4%

PHI -9.8%

DET +22.1%

DET +1.9%

PHI -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	PHI	NBA	DET	PHI	NBA
this game	13.7	14.8	14.9	123.8	109.9	105.1
season	15.0	14.8		104.9	97.7
opponent	14.2	15.1		108.0	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	11.6	14.5	14.4	14.5	13.7
PHI	14.6	13.8	16.2	14.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	85	86	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.03	18	-4	22	13.2	16.4	-3.20	14.8	14.8	0.04
Marcus Morris	83	83	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.01	14	0	14	13.7	13.8	-0.18	15.3	12.7	2.63
Reggie Bullock	35	35	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.22	5	9	-4	14.1	13.5	0.66	14.9	14.8	0.08
Aron Baynes	29	29	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.15	7	7	0	12.4	14.2	-1.83	15.0	14.8	0.19
Reggie Jackson	62	63	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.19	17	-3	20	14.1	13.0	1.07	15.0	14.5	0.57
Tobias Harris	68	68	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.09	13	1	12	13.8	13.4	0.47	15.2	14.0	1.24
Steve Blake	39	38	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.28	-3	17	-20	13.0	14.1	-1.07	14.5	15.0	-0.57
Andre Drummond	72	72	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	7	0	14.2	12.4	1.83	14.8	15.0	-0.19
Anthony Tolliver	2	2	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	13	-12	17.0	13.6	3.38	4.0	15.1	-11.05
Stanley Johnson	30	29	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.10	-9	23	-32	14.1	13.5	0.64	13.2	15.5	-2.28

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sonny Weems	16	16	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.01	1	-15	16	15.4	14.7	0.65	13.9	13.6	0.23
Kendall Marshall	29	30	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-19	24	14.9	14.8	0.14	13.5	13.8	-0.26
Elton Brand	32	32	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-14	14	14.2	15.1	-0.90	13.6	13.7	-0.18
Hollis Thompson	71	70	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-10	6	15.3	13.8	1.52	14.2	12.6	1.59
TJ McConnell	40	39	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.22	4	-18	22	13.4	15.8	-2.41	13.2	14.0	-0.74
Nik Stauskas	56	57	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	-3	-8	14.0	15.9	-1.95	13.3	14.2	-0.92
Ish Smith	61	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.13	-18	4	-22	15.8	13.4	2.41	14.0	13.2	0.74
Nerlens Noel	78	79	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	1	-16	14.9	14.5	0.46	13.7	13.6	0.12
Carl Landry	52	51	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.13	-11	-3	-8	15.5	14.2	1.30	13.5	13.8	-0.27
Isaiah Canaan	70	69	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.02	-21	7	-28	14.6	15.4	-0.75	13.7	13.7	-0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.15,0.09,0.05,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 98, DET 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.42,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0	94.4%
POR 94, NYK 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.6%
MIL 107, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.14,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.4%