NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	96		Excitement	6.5 [535]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +12.5%
Toronto Raptors	104		Comeback	1.7 [794]		LVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): -13.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kent Bazemore	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.01	11	57%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	-0.00	8	69%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	14	67%	0.17	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Kris Humphries	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Mike Muscala	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	8	43%	-0.04	2	0.01	12	67%	-0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dennis Schroder	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	9	58%	0.04	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	15	30%	-0.11	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.07	0.01	20	61%	0.21	4	-0.08	9	78%	0.01
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.00	-0.03	9	67%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.00	12	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	5	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	7	56%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.04	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	7	43%	0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	14	53%	0.05	3	-0.10	8	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	34.6	15.4	27.7	1.7	31.5	135.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +27.5%

TOR +0.1%

TOR +23.1%

ATL -6.3%

TOR +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	13.6	15.9	14.9	98.0	107.2	105.1
season	14.2	16.1		104.1	107.2
opponent	14.8	15.1		104.6	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.0	12.4	12.3	14.2	13.6
TOR	17.5	14.3	15.4	17.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Muscala	16	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.10	-6	-2	-4	13.4	13.6	-0.21	14.5	16.2	-1.74
Kyle Korver	52	54	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-13	18	13.3	14.0	-0.69	15.8	16.1	-0.24
Paul Millsap	70	67	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-11	14	13.9	12.8	1.16	16.3	15.1	1.21
Kent Bazemore	65	64	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-11	14	14.0	12.8	1.20	16.0	15.7	0.32
Kris Humphries	30	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-3	-2	11.9	14.4	-2.47	15.8	16.0	-0.24
Jeff Teague	51	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.06	-7	-1	-6	13.7	13.5	0.20	15.0	17.0	-1.98
Tim Hardaway Jr.	42	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.06	-9	1	-10	14.8	12.7	2.14	16.2	15.8	0.40
Dennis Schroder	51	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.19	-5	-3	-2	13.5	13.7	-0.13	16.7	15.2	1.44
Thabo Sefolosha	41	41	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.02	-14	6	-20	13.0	14.1	-1.14	15.8	16.1	-0.32
Al Horford	72	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.30	-5	-3	-2	13.6	13.8	-0.21	16.1	15.5	0.62

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Patterson	49	52	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.08	13	-5	18	16.5	15.3	1.20	14.1	13.0	1.11
Bismack Biyombo	49	48	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	1	6	16.1	15.7	0.37	13.6	13.6	0.02
Terrence Ross	52	55	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.04	13	-5	18	15.8	16.1	-0.24	13.4	13.9	-0.44
Cory Joseph	58	58	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.15	8	0	8	16.3	15.4	0.97	13.3	14.1	-0.87
Kyle Lowry	76	76	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.26	4	4	0	15.9	16.1	-0.26	14.4	10.8	3.60
DeMar DeRozan	71	72	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	4	0	15.8	16.3	-0.50	12.9	15.6	-2.73
Jonas Valanciunas	48	49	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	7	-6	15.7	16.1	-0.37	13.8	13.4	0.41
Norman Powell	34	33	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.13	-5	13	-18	15.9	16.0	-0.13	14.3	13.3	1.00
Luis Scola	48	47	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	13	-18	15.3	16.5	-1.20	12.8	14.4	-1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.55,0.72,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 82, WAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.55,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.98,0.95,0.98,1,1	94.4%
SAC 85, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.86,0.93,0.89,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%
ORL 97, NYK 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%