NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	82		Excitement	5.4 [705]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (WAS): +18.0%
Washington Wizards	89		Comeback	1.4 [1000]		LVP	Caron Butler (MIA): -27.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Best	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.03	12	62%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	12	42%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	9	70%	0.10	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	10	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.05	0.02	10	73%	0.08	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Sean Lampley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	4	22%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Vladimir Stepania	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.27,-0.27	-0.16	-0.10	0.02	15	37%	-0.17	3	-0.10	8	62%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.05	-0.01	22	63%	0.18	0	0.00	15	93%	0.06
Michael Jordan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	18	51%	0.09	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	0.01	3	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	10	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	36%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	36%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	27.4	15.8	23.6	2.0	32.0	126.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +31.4%

WAS +9.5%

MIA -11.8%

WAS +18.0%

WAS +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	16.0	16.8	15.5	93.2	101.1	101.6
season	16.3	16.5		94.6	100.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		101.9	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.1	15.2	15.2	15.6	16.0
WAS	17.9	17.5	14.2	17.9	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	11	9	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-4	1	18.7	15.6	3.14	21.1	16.3	4.86
Malik Allen	54	56	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-4	1	14.7	18.0	-3.34	17.8	14.9	2.90
Sean Lampley	21	20	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	-1	-5	18.5	15.2	3.34	16.0	17.0	-0.91
Mike James	55	54	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.29	0	-7	7	15.7	16.4	-0.62	16.7	16.8	-0.02
Travis Best	61	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.23	-2	-5	3	15.3	17.5	-2.22	16.2	18.2	-1.99
Rasual Butler	51	54	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-3	-1	15.8	16.2	-0.37	16.2	17.6	-1.46
Brian Grant	72	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.28	-2	-5	3	16.2	14.9	1.35	16.2	19.2	-3.06
Caron Butler	76	77	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-2	-3	15.2	20.9	-5.72	17.1	14.1	3.04
Vladimir Stepania	39	36	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	3	-13	18.3	14.1	4.14	16.6	16.9	-0.28

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryon Russell	37	39	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	-1	9	16.8	16.7	0.06	16.5	15.6	0.87
Brendan Haywood	53	53	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.12	8	-1	9	17.0	16.4	0.58	16.5	15.1	1.39
Jerry Stackhouse	77	77	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.29	2	5	-3	16.7	16.9	-0.18	15.8	16.9	-1.06
Michael Jordan	72	70	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.16	4	3	1	17.4	14.0	3.36	15.9	16.1	-0.17
Tyronn Lue	49	49	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.27	0	7	-7	17.0	16.5	0.52	16.1	15.8	0.24
Larry Hughes	39	39	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.02	7	0	7	16.5	17.0	-0.52	15.8	16.1	-0.24
Charles Oakley	11	12	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.18	1	6	-5	24.0	15.7	8.29	16.9	15.8	1.09
Christian Laettner	65	64	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	5	-3	15.4	20.7	-5.34	15.6	16.9	-1.29
Jahidi White	12	12	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	3	1	17.7	16.6	1.06	16.9	15.8	1.09
Kwame Brown	22	22	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	5	-3	16.1	17.0	-0.88	15.7	16.1	-0.39
Bobby Simmons	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	10	-13	3.0	17.2	-14.24	6.3	16.3	-9.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.55,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.98,0.95,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 96, MIN 111	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
TOR 79, HOU 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.8,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1	94.5%
DET 76, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%