NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	79		Excitement	6.6 [464]		MVP	Rafer Alston (HOU): +15.7%
Houston Rockets	91		Comeback	2.0 [608]		LVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): -20.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	58%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Juan Dixon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	7	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	9	32%	0.00	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.05
Carlos Delfino	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	10	23%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jason Kapono	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.13,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.03	0.02	12	42%	-0.04	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.05
Andrea Bargnani	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.20	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.13	-0.05	0.02	20	41%	-0.04	5	-0.16	6	83%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.09	0.04	12	69%	0.19	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.00	8	72%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.02	8	37%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.10	0.06	-0.02	19	53%	0.18	8	-0.20	9	100%	0.06
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	0.05	8	62%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	17	32%	-0.06	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.7	26.0	14.8	26.0	1.8	28.0	122.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +32.1%

HOU +22.9%

TOR -6.9%

HOU +5.6%

TOR -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	HOU	NBA	TOR	HOU	NBA
this game	15.0	16.0	15.4	84.0	98.9	105.7
season	15.6	16.2		108.5	104.6
opponent	15.2	15.7		100.3	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.1	14.2	15.5	13.3	15.0
HOU	15.6	14.6	15.2	18.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Parker	58	55	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-8	4	14.5	15.7	-1.19	16.2	15.7	0.48
Jamario Moon	40	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-9	6	16.8	13.6	3.20	15.4	16.4	-0.95
Juan Dixon	26	26	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	-9	6	15.8	14.7	1.08	15.5	16.2	-0.74
Rasho Nesterovic	33	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	-9	6	14.4	15.3	-0.92	14.9	16.6	-1.64
Andrea Bargnani	41	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-7	2	16.1	14.2	1.92	15.8	16.1	-0.25
Kris Humphries	38	38	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	-8	4	16.0	14.3	1.65	16.2	15.8	0.38
Chris Bosh	69	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.12	-7	-5	-2	14.7	15.8	-1.16	16.2	15.5	0.74
Jose Calderon	68	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.10	-9	-3	-6	14.7	15.8	-1.08	16.2	15.5	0.74
Carlos Delfino	53	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	-2	-8	13.7	16.6	-2.87	16.4	15.4	0.95
Jason Kapono	44	44	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	0	-12	14.5	15.4	-0.92	16.2	15.8	0.33

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yao Ming	79	81	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.03	19	-7	26	15.7	17.6	-1.89	15.5	11.8	3.65
Shane Battier	72	74	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.02	16	-4	20	16.0	16.0	-0.01	15.2	14.1	1.13
Rafer Alston	62	65	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	3	6	16.6	14.8	1.81	14.6	15.9	-1.26
Luther Head	48	49	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.15	6	6	0	16.4	15.6	0.76	14.4	15.6	-1.13
Luis Scola	38	39	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.22	3	9	-6	15.8	16.1	-0.25	15.4	14.7	0.63
Bonzi Wells	65	65	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	12	-12	15.9	16.2	-0.28	15.1	14.7	0.43
Charles Hayes	66	68	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	8	-4	16.2	15.4	0.79	14.2	17.1	-2.94
Aaron Brooks	30	29	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.05	3	9	-6	14.8	16.6	-1.81	15.9	14.6	1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.8,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 82, WAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.55,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.98,0.95,0.98,1,1	94.5%
CHA 86, NOK 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.65,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.2%
MIN 80, CHI 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.59,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.98,1,0.98,1	94.1%