NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	6.5 [533]		MVP	Randy Foye (DEN): +15.1%
Detroit Pistons	92		Comeback	3.3 [175]		LVP	Stanley Johnson (DET): -20.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Randy Foye	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.00	4	75%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	0.00	12	67%	0.17	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.04	0.06	12	67%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	12	52%	0.06	2	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Kenneth Faried	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	9	63%	0.09	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	7	33%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	11	46%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Danilo Gallinari	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	14	41%	-0.05	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.01	7	71%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.08	-0.00	7	43%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.04	12	67%	0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	15	59%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Darrun Hilliard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	60%	0.07	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	22	33%	-0.12	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.12,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.14	-0.09	-0.02	16	33%	-0.08	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.0	29.1	37.8	23.0	2.6	27.6	144.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +19.5%

DEN +5.4%

DEN +13.5%

DEN +9.7%

DEN +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DET	NBA	DEN	DET	NBA
this game	14.5	15.5	14.9	107.3	95.8	105.1
season	14.9	15.0		104.3	104.9
opponent	15.1	14.9		105.0	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	13.2	14.6	15.7	14.5
DET	15.8	14.5	16.0	15.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	76	77	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.16	15	-4	19	14.2	15.8	-1.59	15.7	14.4	1.36
Emmanuel Mudiay	67	67	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.09	15	-4	19	14.3	15.2	-0.90	16.1	14.0	2.04
Will Barton	43	43	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	4	3	15.4	13.8	1.55	14.4	16.3	-1.88
Randy Foye	42	42	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	5	1	14.9	14.3	0.56	14.6	16.1	-1.53
Jusuf Nurkic	49	49	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.21	2	9	-7	14.9	14.1	0.81	14.7	16.3	-1.64
Joffrey Lauvergne	42	41	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.07	6	5	1	15.7	13.6	2.13	14.9	15.9	-1.01
Nikola Jokic	50	50	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	6	-1	13.8	15.3	-1.51	16.2	14.7	1.51
Gary Harris	74	73	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	11	-11	14.4	14.9	-0.42	15.8	14.3	1.52
Kenneth Faried	37	38	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	12	-13	13.6	15.1	-1.45	16.0	15.1	0.85

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	39	39	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-14	17	13.7	16.6	-2.93	15.4	14.0	1.42
Steve Blake	37	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.17	0	-11	11	14.9	15.8	-0.88	15.1	14.2	0.85
Marcus Morris	70	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-3	-5	15.6	15.2	0.42	13.7	17.0	-3.27
Darrun Hilliard	52	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-12	13	14.5	16.6	-2.09	15.8	13.0	2.88
Brandon Jennings	59	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.00	-11	0	-11	15.8	14.9	0.88	14.2	15.1	-0.85
Andre Drummond	77	79	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-3	-5	16.2	12.3	3.92	14.3	15.8	-1.56
Anthony Tolliver	71	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.02	-15	4	-19	15.7	14.8	0.84	14.5	14.6	-0.07
Stanley Johnson	75	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.02	-17	6	-23	15.9	13.8	2.11	14.3	15.3	-1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.73,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.34,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.47,0.24,0.22,0.1,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 92, NYK 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.68,0.73,0.75,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.05,0	92.9%
UTA 94, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.35,0.27,0.1,0.07,0.04,0,0	92.3%
WAS 105, CHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.77,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.13,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	92.3%