NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	110		Excitement	8.3 [219]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): +35.8%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	39.0 [37]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -10.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.15	0.00	0.01	8	76%	0.17	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13	0.08	0.05	0.01	11	68%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.05	-0.02	-0.06	14	53%	0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.04
Cameron Bairstow	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	4	40%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
E'Twaun Moore	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	7	57%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Cristiano Felicio	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	60%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tony Snell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	0.02	12	31%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Derrick Rose	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.03,-0.11	0.04	-0.12	0.02	27	50%	-0.06	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.36	0.36	0.24	0.16	0.04	12	79%	0.38	1	-0.02	18	100%	0.08
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.12	0.01	18	47%	0.13	2	-0.04	11	45%	-0.17
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	13	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	17	53%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	7	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	21%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	5	58%	0.01	3	-0.08	9	33%	-0.22
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.8	37.7	14.8	29.4	2.5	39.3	152.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +23.4%

CHI -4.0%

DEN +30.9%

DEN +1.0%

CHI -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DEN	NBA	CHI	DEN	NBA
this game	14.5	14.0	14.9	108.9	113.9	105.1
season	14.8	14.9		103.7	104.3
opponent	14.9	14.9		107.8	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.9	13.3	14.0	17.3	14.5
DEN	13.8	14.4	14.2	13.5	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cameron Bairstow	25	24	0.45	-0.95	1.41	0.31	5	-10	15	12.7	15.1	-2.45	13.5	14.1	-0.59
Aaron Brooks	38	37	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.02	9	-14	23	14.2	14.7	-0.50	15.1	13.4	1.72
Tony Snell	41	41	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.20	9	-14	23	13.5	15.2	-1.79	14.3	13.7	0.59
Jimmy Butler	40	40	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-4	3	13.4	15.2	-1.78	14.2	13.9	0.31
Cristiano Felicio	7	8	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-4	3	12.9	14.6	-1.79	14.7	13.9	0.83
Doug McDermott	53	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-3	1	15.0	14.0	1.08	13.5	14.6	-1.09
E'Twaun Moore	67	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.51	4	-9	13	14.2	15.2	-0.98	13.8	14.3	-0.45
Bobby Portis	53	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.08	-13	8	-21	15.8	13.1	2.63	13.7	14.3	-0.66
Derrick Rose	75	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.35	-7	2	-9	14.4	14.9	-0.54	13.8	14.6	-0.79
Taj Gibson	76	75	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.33	-11	6	-17	14.7	13.8	0.91	14.0	14.0	0.04
Kirk Hinrich	30	32	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.31	-17	12	-29	17.1	13.4	3.71	14.3	13.8	0.52

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Foye	46	46	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.38	17	-12	29	14.0	14.0	0.06	14.9	14.2	0.63
Will Barton	62	61	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.49	9	-4	13	14.1	13.8	0.23	14.8	14.2	0.58
Kenneth Faried	56	54	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-6	17	14.0	13.9	0.10	14.7	14.3	0.34
Emmanuel Mudiay	83	81	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	1	3	14.0	13.7	0.33	14.9	13.0	1.90
Danilo Gallinari	74	76	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.48	-5	10	-15	13.7	14.7	-0.97	13.9	16.5	-2.65
JJ Hickson	3	2	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.03	-1	6	-7	4.0	14.3	-10.30	27.0	14.3	12.73
Joffrey Lauvergne	31	31	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	5	-5	13.6	14.2	-0.54	13.7	14.9	-1.13
Jusuf Nurkic	26	27	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	7	-9	13.9	14.0	-0.09	12.6	15.2	-2.64
Nikola Jokic	49	52	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.25	5	0	5	14.9	13.1	1.84	15.6	13.4	2.25
Gary Harris	75	75	-0.47	0.97	-1.44	-0.09	-13	18	-31	14.0	13.9	0.09	14.2	15.5	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.13,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 101, DEN 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.17,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.36,0.45,0.27,1	91.7%
IND 96, CHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.29,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.13,0.16,0.1,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.31,0.45,0.34,0.57,1	91.4%
LAL 86, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.12,0.17,0.21,0.13,0.16,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.45,0.77,0.58,1	91.0%