NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	91		Excitement	3.6 [1113]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +8.1%
Miami Heat	79		Comeback	1.1 [510]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -17.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	20	50%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jerryd Bayless	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	79%	0.09	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Parker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	7	56%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Johnny O'Bryant	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	100%	0.03	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	13	52%	0.06	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Copeland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Ennis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Miles Plumlee	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.05	5	82%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Rashad Vaughn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	10	58%	0.02	5	-0.08	4	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.16	-0.00	0.08	9	79%	0.09	1	-0.00	11	64%	-0.04
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.06	5	20%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.07	15	62%	0.05	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.04
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	8	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	10	30%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	0.07	10	50%	-0.08	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.02	-0.04	6	19%	-0.03	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.16	-0.03	-0.02	6	17%	-0.08	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	0.7	30.6	15.4	24.2	2.0	32.0	128.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +47.7%

MIA -1.8%

MIA -3.3%

MIL +4.6%

MIL +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	16.7	14.9	102.2	86.8	105.1
season	14.8	15.5		102.8	104.5
opponent	15.1	15.3		103.1	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	14.9	14.5	18.0	15.3
MIA	17.3	16.4	16.1	17.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jabari Parker	67	69	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.07	16	-4	20	15.2	15.5	-0.32	16.0	19.1	-3.12
Michael Carter-Williams	48	51	0.52	-0.02	0.53	-0.07	20	-8	28	14.3	16.4	-2.05	16.2	17.4	-1.25
Khris Middleton	68	69	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.13	20	-8	28	14.6	17.4	-2.78	17.0	15.8	1.26
Giannis Antetokounmpo	63	63	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.16	18	-6	24	15.1	15.6	-0.45	17.5	15.0	2.44
John Henson	25	28	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.13	14	-2	16	14.4	15.6	-1.25	18.8	15.8	3.03
Greg Monroe	59	58	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.19	1	11	-10	15.2	15.4	-0.21	15.9	18.2	-2.24
Jerryd Bayless	52	54	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	14	-16	16.2	14.0	2.15	16.9	16.4	0.49
Miles Plumlee	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	15	-18	20.6	14.9	5.66	14.4	16.9	-2.46
Chris Copeland	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	14	-16	20.3	15.1	5.25	10.7	16.9	-6.27
Tyler Ennis	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	15	-18	20.3	15.1	5.25	10.7	16.9	-6.27
Johnny O'Bryant	27	28	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.29	-11	23	-34	16.0	14.9	1.12	18.2	16.1	2.10
Rashad Vaughn	25	24	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.19	-8	20	-28	15.5	15.2	0.31	16.6	16.8	-0.19

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amar'e Stoudemire	11	12	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.03	2	-14	16	17.5	16.6	0.83	16.9	15.0	1.92
Gerald Green	33	35	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-13	14	17.5	16.3	1.14	15.2	15.3	-0.10
Josh Richardson	56	53	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.29	7	-19	26	17.0	16.3	0.67	16.0	14.1	1.93
Justise Winslow	46	46	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-11	10	17.9	15.5	2.45	15.9	14.6	1.35
Chris Bosh	66	65	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	-3	-6	16.6	17.0	-0.38	15.0	16.1	-1.13
Tyler Johnson	63	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.08	-12	0	-12	17.0	16.0	1.00	15.8	14.0	1.75
Hassan Whiteside	70	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	-2	-8	16.2	18.4	-2.21	14.8	16.6	-1.77
Dwyane Wade	44	42	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.10	-21	9	-30	15.7	17.7	-1.98	13.7	16.7	-2.97
Luol Deng	66	63	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.05	-17	5	-22	16.2	18.1	-1.87	15.1	15.5	-0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 98, MIL 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.25,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
NYK 111, CHA 78	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
TOR 106, CHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%